GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 1.1622 High Jun 15 
• RES 3: 1.1565 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 2: 1.1487 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1422 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.1405 @ 06:36 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.1364/25 Low Jul 23/ Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

EURUSD has been in a corrective cycle since Jun 24. Gains have delivered a print above the 20-day EMA - at 1.1422. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.1487, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions are bearish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. A resumption of weakness would open 1.1325, the Jun 24 low and bear trigger.

JGB futures are sharply stronger, +47 compared to settlement levels, after gapping higher at the open on news that the US halted strikes on Iran on Saturday and Sunday nights to allow talks to take place.

• Japan's services producer price index (SPPI) rose 3.2% y/y in June, easing from May's revised 3.4%, indicating companies continued to pass higher costs on to customers while private consumption remained resilient.
• Cash US tsys are 4-5bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session.
• MNI FED: MNI Fed Preview-July 2026: Fed To Hold Fire But Hawks Take Aim Markets come into Fed decision week eyeing a significant chance of the first rate hike since July 2023. Download Full Report Here:
• The BOJ is widely expected to leave policy unchanged next week, but officials are increasingly open to a September rate hike after June's increase had little impact on financial conditions. While economists still favour a December move, persistent inflation and resilient economic activity have strengthened the case for earlier tightening. Accordingly, the markets will be very much attuned to any hints about the policy outlook.
• Cash JGBs are 1-5bps richer, with the 7-10-year bucket leading.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty apart from an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-11 YR.

Bloomberg Finance LP

• RES 4: 127.06 High Jul 2 
• RES 3: 126.54 High Jul 7  
• RES 2: 125.69 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 125.28 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 124.91 @ 06:06 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 124.53/124.03 High Jul 24 / Low Jul 23   
• SUP 2: 123.93 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 123.77 Low May 18 and the M/T bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.09 1.000 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing   

The current trend theme in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. Price recently breached support at 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low and a key short-term level. Note that 124.70, 76.4% of the May 18 - Jun 30 bull leg, has also been breached. This opens 123.77, the May 18 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 125.37, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 125.28.