EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 140.94 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
- RES 1: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 137.92 @ 17:25 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 136.52/134.79 Low May 2 / Low Apr 27
- SUP 2: 134.67/30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 5 and a key support
- SUP 3: 132.95 Low Mar 24
- SUP 4: 132.33 Low Mar 23
EURJPY continues to consolidate. The recent pullback is considered corrective and the current trend direction is up. Key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average intersects at 134.79, just above an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While these supports hold, trend conditions remain bullish. The bull trigger is unchanged at 140.00, the Apr 21 high.
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US TSYS: Tsy Yield Curves Reverse Early Flattening
Tsys see-sawed in weaker range all session, near lows after the bell. Generally quiet end to the week: no react to Wholesale inventories (2.5%)/trade sales (1.7%) earlier. Two-way positioning/squaring up ahead the weekend, markets keeping wary eye on geopol headline risk re: Russia war in Ukraine, continued global sanctions.
- Yield curves inched steeper, however, after trading flatter in early trade. Currently, 2s10s nearly 30bp off Sunday evening inverted low of -9.531 at +19.542 (+.320) while 3s, 5s and 7s remain inverted vs. 10s (-1.872, -4.547, -8.477 respectively).
- Limited data (NY Fed survey of consumer expectations at 1100ET) kicks off next week's shortened* pre-Easter holiday trade though several Fed speakers scheduled on Monday:
- Atl Fed Bostic open remarks: Fed Listens event in Nashville; Fed Govs' Bowman and Waller closing remarks at same event at 0930ET
- NY Fed John Williams CME/Economic Club of New York event
- Chicago Fed Evans economic outlook at 1240ET
- Treasury supply:
- US Tsy $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
- US Tsy $46B 3Y Note auction (91282CEH0) at 1300ET
- * Note: CME floor closes early Thursday, April 14 at 1300ET, markets closed next Friday for Easter holiday.
US: Late Corporate Credit Risk
Corporate credit risk climbed higher in late trade Friday as nascent support in equity indexes evaporated in late trade.
- SPX pared gains back near steady while Dow components continued to outperform Friday. Focus on latest earnings cycle that kicks off next week with financials make up the bulk of releases. JP Morgan and BlackRock are due to set the tone on Wednesday, before Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo follow.
- Investment grade risk measured by Markit's CDXIG5 index currently +2.139 to 70.138; CDXHY5 high yield index mildly lower at 104.327 (-.487).
- Outperforming credit sectors (tighter or least wide): Utilities sector (-0.4) with gas and electric service provider debt narrowing.
- Lagging sectors (wider or least narrow): Communications sector (+1.3) underperforming for second day running followed by Technology and Sr Financials sectors (+0.9).
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup, SPX Back Near Steady
Stocks held mixed levels after the FI close, SPX paring gains back near steady while Dow components continued to outperform Friday. Focus on latest earnings cycle that kicks off next week with financials make up the bulk of releases. JP Morgan and BlackRock are due to set the tone on Wednesday, before Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo follow
- S&P eminis currently trades +1.25 (0.03%) at 4497.75 vs. 4469.50 session low -- above key support of 4455.32 50-day EMA. On the flipside, a resumption of gains and an ability to remain above the 50-day EMA would be seen as a bullish development -- key resistance at 4588.75 High Apr 5.
- Meanwhile, Dow Industrials currently trade +213.79 (0.62%) at 34798.7, Nasdaq -128.5 (-0.9%) at 13771.29.
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Energy sector continued to outperform (+2.79%) with energy equipment servicers outpacing oil & gas consumables. Financials next up (+1.11%) as banks and diversified financial names outpacing insurers.
- Laggers: Information Technology sector extended losses (-1.16%) as semiconductors continued to lag on chip scarcity, software outpacing hardware. Consumer Discretionary next up (-0.54%) weighed down by autos.
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: United Health (UNH) took the lead climbing +10.61 to 547.56, outpacing the rebound in Home Depot +9.02 to 311.72. Tech shares weaker: MSFT -3.11 at 298.19, HON -2.54 at 190.16, AAPL -1.76 at 170.44.
