USDJPY TECHS: Building On To Its Recent Gains
Jul-11 18:30
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 147.52 High Jul 11
- PRICE: 147.29 @ 16:40 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 145.83 Low Jul 8
- SUP 2: 145.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
- SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
USDJPY is building on recent gains and the short-term bull cycle remains in play. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. Note too that 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.11, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish.
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US TSYS: Extending Highs, 10s Breaching Resistance
Jun-11 18:27
- Treasury futures are extending late session gains, Sep'25 10Y futures breaching initial technical resistance of 110-19.5/20.5 (50-day EMA / Jun 11 High) to 110-22.5 (+16).
- Next resistance above at 111-14.5 (High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg).
- Curves steeper: 2s10s +1.578 at 46.336, 5s30s +4.726 at 88.731, 10Y yld taps 4.4065% low.
- Cross-asset update: Stocks did extend lows recently, lending to a moderate risk-off theme (SPX eminis taps 6006.25 low, trades 6023.5 last -21.25), Bbg US$ index inches off low of 1206.09 to 1206.50 (-4.09).
COMMODITIES: Crude Rallies On Iran Tensions, Gold Gains
Jun-11 18:24
- Crude has moved higher today, with the risk-premium rising after Trump doubted progress towards a nuclear deal with Iran and Reuters reporting that the US plans to evacuate its embassy in Iraq.
- Meanwhile, US-China trade talks appeared constructive, adding support.
- WTI Jul 25 is up by 3.9% at $67.5/bbl.
- Trump said on a podcast released today that he was less confident around an Iran deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister had earlier posted on X that a nuclear deal was “within reach” and could be “achieved rapidly.”
- Iran has threatened to target US bases if nuclear talks fail, heightening fears of military conflict, Reuters said.
- Today’s gain has seen WTI futures piercing resistance at $67.14, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear break of this level would open $71.10 next, the Apr 2 high and key resistance.
- It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has rebounded by 0.6% to $3,344/oz after softer-than-expected US CPI data prompted further weakness in the US dollar.
- Analysts at Saxo Bank said that gold was supported by the benign inflation print, which lifted the prospect for a US rate cut, perhaps sooner than the October date currently priced.
- A bullish theme in gold remains intact, with attention still on $3,435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Aug'25 10Y Call Over Risk Reversal
Jun-11 18:13
- +30,000 TYQ5 109/112 call over risk reversals, 1 net vs. 110-15.5/0.50%
