OIL: Brent Above Resistance Point, Risks To Global Energy Very High

• RES 4: 127.74 1.00 proj of the May 18 - 29 - Jun 6 price swing  
• RES 3: 127.22 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 126.80 High Jun 17         
• PRICE: 126.11 @ 05:37 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 125.92 20-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 124.88 Low Jun 10 / 11 and a key S/T support
• SUP 3: 124.44 76.4% retracement of the May 18 - 29 rally 
• SUP 4: 123.93 Low May 20

For now, the latest pullback in Bund futures is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 126.63, the May 29 high and bull trigger. This hurdle has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 18. This would open the 127.00 handle initially. Key S/T support lies at 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low. Initial support  is 125.92 20-day EMA.

NZGBs closed little changed after being 3bps cheaper early on fears that US-Iran negotiations would be derailed by the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
• Risk appetite has improved following a joint statement from mediators Qatar and Pakistan and comments on X from Iran's foreign minister Araghchi that progress had been made in US-Iran talks and that the technical team would continue to work out details through the week.
• Brent started today reaching $82.30/bbl but then declined to a low of $78.69. It is currently down 1.6% to $79.31, holding above initial support at $75.94. August WTI is 0.4% lower at $75.51, off the intraday low at $75.01. It reached $78.14 at the start of trading.
• The NZ-AU 10-year was unchanged on the day.
• Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with a steeper 2s10s curve.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 21bps of tightening is priced for July, while February 2027 assigns 74bps.
• The local calendar will be empty until Filled Jobs data on Monday 29 June.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 2.00% May-32 bond, NZ$175mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP

After starting Monday’s APAC trading higher, crude fell following a joint statement from mediators Qatar and Pakistan and comments on X from Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi that progress had been made in US-Iran talks and that the technical team would continue to work out details through the week. A map has been agreed to reach a deal over the 60-day period. A communication framework regarding the Strait of Hormuz was also agreed. Bloomberg is reporting that there are growing signs of movement in the region but with uncertainty elevated, risks are high.

• Reports have come through that hostilities in Lebanon have ceased for 48 hours. There were fears that negotiations would be derailed by the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict but Araghchi said that talks had “DELIVERED MAJOR PROGRESS TO END LEBANON WAR" – BBG
• Araghchi reported that “OIL AND PETROCHEM EXPORTS ARE WAIVED, BLOCKADE LIFTED, SOME FROZEN ASSETS RELEASED, AND MAJOR RECONSTRUCTION & DEVELOPMENT PLAN LAUNCHED FOR IRAN" (Reuters).
• Kuwait Petroleum put out its first naphtha tender for a long time but buyers would have to provide their own vessels. It also said that all “force majeure” notices implemented because of the Iran War would be lifted.
• Brent started today reaching $82.30/bbl but then declined to a low of $78.69. It is currently down 1.6% to $79.31, holding above initial support at $75.94. August WTI is 0.4% lower at $75.51, off the intraday low at $75.01. It reached $78.14 at the start of trading.
• Later the Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Lagarde and Lane appear. In terms of data, only May Canadian CPI is of note.