FED: Bostic Reiterates Call For One Rate Cut This Year
May-16 08:15
Atlanta Fed's Bostic (non-voter) told a Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast interview on May 14, published today, that he still sees just one rate cut this year amid uncertainty. The recent de-escalation in US-China trade tensions has only changed his outlook “a little”.
- A Bloomberg write-up of an interview conducted May 14 for the Odd Lots podcast has Bostic saying “I have one cut for the year […] In part, it’s because I think the uncertainty is unlikely to resolve itself quickly.”
- From the Bloomberg report: Bostic pointed to the 90-day delays in the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs along with the latest US-China trade de-escalation, noting the final results of the negotiations are still unclear. When asked in the podcast […] if the recent trade truce between the US and China had changed his outlook, Bostic replied, “a little.”
- "Our policy is going to have to anticipate — and to some extent — potentially push against those inflationary forces to the extent that we see them, so that will put a limit on where our current policy stance is”.
- He expects slower growth but a recession isn’t in his outlook, eyeing growth of 0.5-1% this year.
- His rate view isn’t new, having noted on Mar 24 (after the Mar 19 FOMC with its SEP) that “I was at two rate cuts this year, now only see one” per Bloomberg headlines at the time.
- Since then, he said on Apr 15 that moving “too boldly” with policy “wouldn’t be prudent now” as where the economy lands depends on details of government policies. That was firmed up on May 9 by simply saying it isn’t prudent to adjust policy amid uncertainty, i.e. not mentioning “too boldly”.
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CROSS ASSET: More upside momentum in Gold
Apr-16 08:13
- Some upside momentum in Gold, more likely short cover, than margin related move, spiked to $3307.47, and next Gold MNI Tech resistance is still at $3347.7 - 1.382 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing.
- US Tnotes at session high is helping the Yen, although USDJPY is finding some demand just ahead of the 142.00 level for now.
MNI: ITALY MAR FINAL HICP +2.1% Y/Y (FLASH 2.1%)
Apr-16 08:05
- MNI: ITALY MAR FINAL HICP +2.1% Y/Y (FLASH 2.1%)
- MNI: ITALY MAR FINAL HICP +1.6% M/M (FLASH 1.6%)
SWAPS: Front End Of ASW Curve Outperforms Again During Risk-Off Trade
Apr-16 07:57
German ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor trade 0.9-2.0bp wider, with the front end of the spread curve outperforming and the long end lagging.
- The broader risk-off move helps explain the direction of travel for spreads, while the presence of this morning’s 30-Year supply explains some of the underperformance further out the curve (at least intraday).
- Schatz & Bobl spreads vs. 3-month Euribor are 3-4bp off last week’s year-to-date closing highs, while the Bund ASW is essentially equal with last week’ closing high and the Buxl spread is through last week’s closing high, set for the highest close since mid-February.
- Looking at the recent moves, Commerzbank note that “our key specialness metric cheapened below zero for the first time since 2015 and CTDs as well as on-the-runs also trade calm. Thus, the return of the collateral risk premium explains the entire richening of swap spreads, which is also visible in the aggressive steepening of the Bund ASW-structure”.
- They go onto highlight that “Bunds are emerging as the main beneficiary, while UST vs. swap underperformance puts question marks behind their status as safe haven assets. This dynamic is also giving Buxl spreads a lift close to pre-election levels”.
- Looking forwards, they suggest that “for long-dated Bund spreads to decouple from USTs and Gilts on a sustained basis we need to see evidence that the euro could rival the dollar as the world's reserve currency. However, we stick with our base case, where major swap curves look set to converge as risk sentiment stabilises and German fiscal risks take centre stage again by next year”.
