CROSS ASSET: Bonds & Equities Stabilise

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/22 $Benchmark State Street 3NC2 +105a, 3NC2 SOFR, 5Y +115a
• 04/22 $Benchmark Kinder Morgan 5Y +155a, 10Y +185a
• 04/22 $Benchmark OCP 5Y, +10Y investor calls

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook sees a 0.5pp cut to global growth to 2.8%, including a 0.9pp reduction in the U.S. to 1.8%. The risk of a U.S. recession this year is 37% and the chance inflation rises above 3.5% is more than 30%, up from 13% in the IMF's October forecast.

• "Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook. Ratcheting up a trade war, along with even more elevated trade policy uncertainty, could further reduce near- and long-term growth, while eroded policy buffers weaken resilience to future shocks".
• While higher inflation boosts the odds the Federal Reserve will need to tighten policy, other central banks must remain nimble against competing risks from faster inflation and slower economic growth, the IMF said. "In all cases, credibility of the monetary policy framework—and its cornerstone, central bank independence—will remain key."
• The baseline outlook was based on information up to Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs earlier this month but not the subsequent pause and higher tariffs on China. "This pause, even if extended indefinitely, does not materially change the global outlook compared to the reference forecast. This is because the overall effective tariff rate of the United States and China remains elevated even if some initially highly tariffed countries will now benefit, while policy-induced uncertainty has not declined," Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog.
• China's growth outlook was lowered 0.6pp to 4.0%. Other nations targeted by Trump saw major growth downgrades, with Mexico down 1.7pp meaning GDP shrinks 0.3% this year, and Canada's growth was reduced 0.6pp. Global trade volume growth was reduced 1.5pp to 2.5%. 

ERZ5 98.3125p, sold at 14.5 down to 14 in 8k.