UK: BOE: BOE Instant Answers May 2023

May-11 11:00

 'Instant Answers' from the  BOE May 11 meet

  1. Was the Bank Rate raised, and if so by how much? Yes, by 25bp to 4.5%
  2. Number of members voting for a rate cut: Zero
  3. Number of members voting for unchanged rate: Two, Dhingra and Tenreyro
  4. Number of members voting for a 25bp hike: Seven
  5. Number of members voting for a 50bp or larger hike: Zero

    NB: On questions 2-5 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
  6. Did the MPC again say “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required”? Yes, this was repeated word-for-word.
  7. Did the MPC say "Any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent"? No.
  8. Did the MPC say the bank rate is now likely close to / at its peak? No.
  9. UK CPI rate in two years' time at market rates (mode) (previous Q2+0.76%) 1.1%
  10. UK CPI rate in two years' time on constant rates (mode) (previous Q2+0.62%) 0.71%
  11. UK CPI rate in three years' time at market rates (mode)  1.2%
  12. UK CPI rate in three years' time on constant rates (mode) 0.88%
  13. What is the Bank's forecast for QQ Y/Y Q2 2024 GDP? 0.89%
  14. What is the Bank's forecast for QQ Y/Y Q2 2025 GDP? 0.74%

Historical bullets

NORWAY: Local Banks See CPI Bolstering Case for May Rate Hike

Apr-11 10:59

A few sell-side takes on this morning's Norwegian CPI release:

  • Handelsbanken write: The data clearly points to another rate hike in May, The outcome was as expected, and as such is neutral to the outlook for the key policy rate. There are reasons to believe that CPI-ATE is about to pass its peak. But at the same time, it will take time to bring the core inflation rate any closer to its target again.
  • Swedbank: Passthrough of higher inflation is becoming more broad-based, suggesting price momentum is still too strong for Norges Bank to back down from rate hikes anytime soon. A hike in May and also June should be priced with a higher probability.
  • SEB: We predict continued acceleration over the next 4-5 months and forecast CPI-ATE to slightly exceed Norges Bank’s trajectory. CPI, combined with a still-strong labour market, supports Norges Bank’s guidance of a 25bps rate hike in May.
  • Nordea: It is highly likely that Norges Bank will stick to their planned rate hike to 3.25% in May. We (still) expect a rate top at 3.75% during the summer.

LIBOR: US FIX - 11/04/23

Apr-11 10:56
  • US00O/N 4.81629 0.00658
  • US0001M 4.93729 0.03700
  • US0003M 5.24157 0.04371
  • US0006M 5.35157 0.11414
  • US0012M 5.32314 0.19743

STIR: BLOCKs, SOFR Flys and Iron Condors

Apr-11 10:54
  • 2,500 SFRM3 94.25/94.75/95.00 put flys, 6.5 ref 95.04 at 0644:12ET
  • -5,000 SFRU3 94.75/94.87 put spds vs. SFRU3 95.37/95.50 call spds, iron condor for 0.75 net credit earlier