CRYPTO: Bitcoin - Just Can't Bounce, Trades Heavy Within Its $68-$75k Support
Bitcoin had a range overnight of $72,047.34 - $76,552.66, Asia is currently trading around $71800, -1.10%. Bitcoin tried to bounce but stalled back toward $77k and very quickly dropped to once again make new lows, not great price action if you are a bull. We are testing the very important $68-75k support area so it is not surprising we see traders coming back to market at a 40% discount from the highs seen in October last year. Though some of the chatter has turned decidedly negative in the recent weeks. This area is technically a good place for those looking to get long of Bitcoin, and potentially start dipping their toes back in the pool. For now it remains in a Bear trend but I will be watching for signs of any basing, a break back below $68-$75k though could signal a deeper pullback to the $50-$60 area.
- Bloomberg - “Michael Burry Warns of Cascading Effects From Bitcoin Plunge. Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin's plunge could deepen into a self-reinforcing "death spiral," inflicting lasting damage on companies that have spent the past year stockpiling the token. Burry argued that Bitcoin has been exposed as a purely speculative asset, failing to take off as a debasement hedge similar to precious metals, and that further losses could rapidly strain the balance sheets of major holders.”
- Ben Hunt on X: “It’s not just de-dollarization that’s happening today, but de-bitcoinization. Both have lost the narrative war on the “store of value” battlefield. IMO we’re entering a period where biz models based on USD leverage or BTC leverage (both explicit leverage and implicit leverage) are going to be severely challenged. It’ll show up first in BTC leverage biz models because there’s no there there. Just a giant liquidity squeeze.”
- Walter Bloomberg on X: “STIFEL WARNS BITCOIN COULD DROP TO $38K. Stifel says Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 based on past cycles, citing tighter Fed policy, slowing U.S. crypto regulation, shrinking liquidity, and heavy ETF outflows. Sentiment has sunk into “extreme fear,” showing waning institutional and retail interest.”
- Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $4,007
Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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JGBS AUCTION: PREVIEW - 10-Year JGB Auction Due
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) will today sell Y2.6tn of 10-year JGBs. The MoF last sold 10-year debt on 2 December 2025. The auction drew cover of 3.5913x at an average yield of 1.872%, an average price of 98.57, a high yield of 1.877%, a low price of 98.53, with 21.1502% of bids allotted at the high yield.
- Last month, the 10-year auction saw stronger demand than its 12-month average. The bid-to-cover ratio was stronger vs 2.97x at the prior auction, with a tail of 0.04 vs 0.13 for prior sale. Cut-off price was 98.53 vs 98.50 in a Bloomberg survey.
- Results are due at 0335 GMT / 1235 JT.
AUD: AUDUSD Holds Above 0.6700, Option Expiry Today
AUDUSD trended towards 0.6700 earlier in the APAC session but has rebounded off the low of 0.6703 to be little changed at 0.6715 supported by stronger Hong Kong & US equities and a turn lower in the greenback. Base metals are also higher.
- AUDUSD is also likely getting direction from a $1.19bn option expiry today with strike at 0.6700. The pair has faced upward and downward pressure to this level this week.
- After trading above 1.1600 early in the session, AUDNZD is now down 0.1% to 1.1589.
- AUDJPY reached 105.256 but is now around 105.07 to be up 0.1% today. AUDEUR is little changed at 0.5729 after falling to 0.5723, while AUDGBP is around 0.4959.
- Equities are mixed with the S&P e-mini 0.1% higher and Hang Seng +1.0% but KOSPI down 0.3% and ASX -0.3%. Copper is 1.0% higher but iron ore steady around $105.50/t. Oil is down with WTI -0.6% to $58.00/bbl.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin and Miran speak. US final December S&P Global services/composite PMIs print as well as euro area/UK services/composite PMIs and Spanish/German/French preliminary December CPIs.
- The focus on Wednesday will be November Australian CPI with the trimmed mean forecast to moderate 0.1pp to 3.2%. Higher-than-expected outcomes could see Aussie strengthen.
CHINA PRESS: Hainan Sees Duty-free Shopping Boom
Duty-free shopping in the Hainan Free Trade Port reached CNY712 million during the New Year’s Day holiday after the region became a separate customs territory with zero tariffs on many goods, the People’s Daily reported. This was a year-on-year rise of 128.9%, data by local customs showed. The number of duty-free items sold and shoppers reached 442,000 and 83,500, a rise of 52.4% and 60.6% y/y, the newspaper said. It is also estimated that Hainan's total tourism revenue will increase by 2.62–3.28% after the customs closure, the Daily said.
