EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8613 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8555 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8540 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8504 @ 06:31 BST May 31
- SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
EURGBP remains above this week’s low of 0.8484 (May 29). Conditions are unchanged and a bearish theme remains in play. Key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear break of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 0.8540, the 20-day EMA.
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GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 2: 97.03/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- RES 1: 96.57 High Apr 29
- PRICE: 95.78 @ Close Apr 30
- SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.03, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 01-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 07-May | 0001 | Apr | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 07-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 09-May | 0001 | Apr | RICS House Prices |
| 09-May | 0001 | Apr | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 09-May | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 09-May | 1230 | BoE Press Conference | |
| 09-May | 1400 | Apr | BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data |
| 09-May | 1715 | BOE's Pill MPR Virtual Q&A | |
| 10-May | 0700 | Mar | GDP/Trade/Services/Production/Construction |
| 10-May | 0700 | 1Q | GDP First Estimate |
| 10-May | 1215 | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing | |
| 14-May | 0700 | Mar/Apr | Labour Market Survey |
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.8600/45 High Apr 24 / 23
- PRICE: 0.8540 @ 06:18 BST May 1
- SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Apr 30
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
EURGBP traded lower Monday and the cross remains closer to its recent low. The extension down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a deeper retracement. This has exposed 0.8521, the Apr 17 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 low and Aug 23 2023 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8645, the Apr 23 high.
