EURGBP continues to trade above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish with sights on 0.8484, the May 29 low and the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and confirm a clear break of key supports at the 0.8500 pivot level, and the zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 31 high.
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Date | UK | Period | Event |
07-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
09-May | 0001 | Apr | RICS House Prices/ KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
09-May | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
09-May | 1230 | BoE Press Conference | |
09-May | 1400 | Apr | BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data |
09-May | 1715 | BOE's Pill MPR Virtual Q&A | |
10-May | 0700 | Mar | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
10-May | 0700 | Q1 | GDP First Estimate |
10-May | 1215 | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing | |
10-May | 1245 | BOE's Dhingra remarks at KCL Econdat Conference | |
14-May | 0700 | Mar | Labour Market Survey |
14-May | 0830 | BOE's Pill Speech at Chartered Accountants Summit | |
16-May | 1200 | BOE's Greene Speech at Make UK on Labour Market | |
17-May | 0900 | BOE's Mann Speech at Economics Statistics Centre | |
21-May | 1100 | May | CBI Industrial Trends |
The RBA left rates at 4.35% which was widely expected and maintained its neutral bias with the optionality that it isn’t “ruling anything in or out”. In that respect there was little change but the tone of the statement was a lot more cautious re the inflation outlook saying that not only is it “falling more gradually than expected” but the Board “will remain vigilant to upside risks”. The statement with the updated forecasts implies that rates are on hold for at least this year given the current outlook.
ACGBs (YM +7.0 & XM +6) are richer today after the RBA as widely expected kept rates on hold at 4.35%, while earlier we had Retail Sales Ex Inflation consensus is -0.3% down from 0.30% in March.