GILTS: Bear Steepening, 5s30s Above 120bp

• RES 4: $107.341 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off
• RES 3: $100.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $99.331 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off 
• RES 1: $78.898/89.374 - High May 19 / 13        
• PRICE: $75.751 @ 08:27 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $70.869/61.007 - Low Apr 29 / Low Mar 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

A bull cycle in Silver since Mar 23 appears to have been corrective and the pullback from the May 13 high highlights a possible reversal. A continuation lower would open $70.869, the Apr 29 low. Clearance of this support would expose $61.007, the Mar 23 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $89.374, the May 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent corrective cycle.

Euribor futures remain sensitive to Middle East headline flow, with ERZ6 around 8.5 ticks above yesterday’s low following US President Trump’s intervention in the Israeli advance/attacks on Lebanon. Today’s Eurozone-wide flash HICP reading (due 1000BST) is unlikely to shift the narrative meaningfully for front-end EUR rates, as it is still too early for the energy shock to be meaningfully showing up in non-energy HICP components.

• ECB-dated OIS back to pricing 60bps of hikes through year-end (vs 65bps at yesterday’s close), with the first of those set to be delivered at next Thursday’s decision.
• ECB’s Rehn and Vujcic are scheduled to speak today. A reminder that Vujcic is now officially the ECB Vice President – we consider him a relatively centrist member of the GC.

Kpler analyst/reporter Amena Bakr tweets “A number of vessel owners are saying that they are no longer receiving IRGC threats via the radio, which wasn’t the case a few weeks back. But still the confidence level in crossing is LOW.”