UKRAINE: BBG-Deal Could Lock In Gains For Putin, But Referendum Needed

Bloomberg reports that "Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter." With Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin potentially meeting in person as soon as next week, the details of any such peace deal will be closely scrutinised. The article claims that Putin is demanding the entirety of the Donbas region and annexed Crimea be recognised as Russian territory. The frontlines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzia oblasts further to the west would be halted at present positions, but it is unclear what their future designation would be. 

• If realised, such an agreement would be a major boon to Putin, whose forces have proved unable to wrest control of the regions by force over the course of the past three and a half years of war.
• However, there are potential significant impediments to such a deal. It is unclear whether Ukraine will be invited to participate in direct talks with Putin, and the Zelenskyy administration could immediately reject such an offer (albeit risking a backlash from a White House impatient for any form of peace to be agreed).
• Moreover, Article 73 of the Ukrainian Constitution stipulates, "Issues of altering the territory of Ukraine are resolved exclusively by an All-Ukrainian referendum." The logistics of holding such a vote, and then dealing with the outcome are riddled with uncertainty.