AUSTRALIA DATA: Public Sector Wage Inflation Exceeds Private
Nov-13 01:31
Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. The ABS noted that the smaller minimum wage increase on July 1 of 3.75% after 5.75% last year and 4.6-5.2% in 2022 has helped to drive wage inflation lower. The Q3 WPI outcome is could see Q4 undershoot RBA expectations at 3.4% y/y.
- Q3 WPI was in line with trimmed mean inflation but above headline.
- Both the private and public sectors saw 0.8% quarterly wage rises with annual growth easing to 3.5% and 3.7% from 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. This is the first time that public wage growth is above private since Q4 2020. Q3 2023 saw private wages rise 1.4% q/q and public 1.0%.
- Healthcare (+1.7%), retail (+2.1%) and admin services (+2.1%) saw the largest quarterly increases.
- Wage pressures appear to be easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows. The ABS observes that 31% of wage increases were above 4% annualised in Q3 down from 46% in Q2, the peak. Also the average increase is moderating with the total down to 3.7% in Q3 2024 from 5.4% in Q3 2023 and the private sector to 3.9% from 5.8%, but this was driven by the lower minimum wage increase.
- With productivity growth remaining soft at 0.4% y/y in Q2 and the RBA revising down its expectations for 2024 and 2025, wage growth needs to moderate a bit further for it to be consistent with the inflation target.
Australia wages y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/SEEK
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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY19.5 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON
Oct-14 01:24
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY19.5 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equity Flows Mixed, Thailand Selling Streak Continues
Oct-14 01:23
Asian equity flows were mixed on Friday, South Korea saw outflows largely linked to the recent under performance of Samsung. Elsewhere Malaysia saw a large $40m outflow, while Thailand marked 13 straight sessions of selling by foreign investors.
- South Korea: Saw outflows of -$395m Friday, with the past 5 sessions netting -$522m, while YTD flows are +$9.79b. The 5-day average is -$104m, below both the 20-day average of -$260m and the 100-day average of -$51m.
- Taiwan: Saw inflows of +$818m Friday, with the past 5 sessions netting -$209m, while YTD flows are -$12.42b. The 5-day average is -$42m, below the 20-day average of +$133m, and the 100-day average of -$151m.
- India: Saw outflows of -$564m Thursday, with the past 5 sessions totaling -$3.76b, while YTD flows are +$4.81b. The 5-day average is -$752m, below the 20-day average of -$89m but above the 100-day average of +$75m.
- Indonesia: Saw outflows of -$6m Friday, with the past 5 sessions netting -$291m, while YTD flows are +$2.84b. The 5-day average is -$58m, below the 20-day average of +$32m but above the 100-day average of +$28m.
- Thailand: Saw outflows of -$35m Friday, with the past 5 sessions totaling -$190m, while YTD flows are -$3.10b. The 5-day average is -$38m, below the 20-day average of -$20m and the 100-day average of -$13m.
- Malaysia: Saw outflows of -$51m Friday, with the past 5 sessions netting -$46m, while YTD flows are +$559m. The 5-day average is -$9m, below both the 20-day average of -$18m but above the 100-day average of +$6m.
- Philippines: Saw no flows Friday, with the past 5 sessions netting +$23m, while YTD flows are +$78m. The 5-day average is +$5m, below both the 20-day average of +$17m but above the 100-day average of +$4m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Neutral
Oct-14 01:18
The USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.0723, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.0722.
- Today's fixing is a neutral outcome. This comes after some slight downside surprises at the tail end of last week for the fix.
- USD/CNH is higher in the first part of trade, but has found selling interest above 7.0900, the pair last near 7.0850.
- Equity futures are volatile in the first part of trade, with focus to be on sentiment post the weekend's fiscal briefing update.
