AUD: AUD/USD - Consolidates Above 0.6500
The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.6515- 0.6548, Asia is trading around 0.6535. A quiet session with little direction for the AUD. The AUD needs to hold above its 0.6480/0.6500 support as a sustained move below there would see a deeper correction back to 0.6350/0.6400. While above this support though the focus will be on trying to build a base from which to potentially extend higher.
- Bloomberg -- “So where does that leave Australia’s central bank watchers? If we take the Governor at her word — and there’s no reason not to — mid-meeting central bank communication now is effectively moot. All but useless. Save your time and don’t bother listening.“
- “Another thing RBA watchers may as well skip over going forward is the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ monthly inflation data. Bullock’s main reason for holding is she wants to see the second quarter CPI release on July 30. Clearly she has little faith in the monthly readings, so why would economists?”
- Bloomberg - “At the end of the day, however, the US isn’t the main game for Australian exports — the bigger threat to the economy from tariffs stems from the impacts on China and Japan, and on consumer and business confidence.”
- The AUD/USD continues to hold above its support around 0.6500, looks like it's back to the 0.6500 - 0.6600 range and it should now take its cues from the USD. Watching to see if the support continues to hold as a move through there signals a deeper correction.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD598m), 0.6600(AUD 634m), 0.6650(AUD 857m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6560(AUD631m July 15), 0.6650(AUD599m July 11).
- CFTC Data shows Asset managers pared back their shorts slightly -35992, the Leveraged community maintained their shorts -22903.
- Data/Event: NAB Business Confidence, RBA Cash Rate
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact For Now
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.665 @ 15:45 BST Jun 09
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures rallied well on the RBA rate decision, reversing a small part of recent weakness. Recent price action pressured prices through to new pullback lows last week. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of recent losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
US TSYS: US Yields Comfortable Around 4.50%, Awaiting CPI
TYU5 reopens at 110-06, up 0-01 from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Overnight the US 10-year yield had a range of 4.4678% - 4.5156%, closing around 4.47%.
- Treasury yields ended lower overnight, led by the short-end the yield curve ended slightly steeper(2s10s +0.34 at 46.832, 5s30s +1.08 at 85.589).
- MNI US DATA: NY Fed: Consumers Less Pessimistic On Jobs, Finances .The vast majority of Labor Market and Household Finance categories in the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) improved in May, though many remain weaker compared with late 2024/early 2025 as tariff uncertainty appears to continue in respondents' minds.
- MNI US DATA: NY Fed Consumer Inflation Concerns Ease In May. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) showed an improvement across the board in May, with respondents both less pessimistic on economic prospects and less concerned about future inflation compared with April.
- The 10-year yield held its support around the 4.35% area last week. While this level holds focus will remain on potentially extending higher, CPI tomorrow will be a very important input.
AUD: AUD/USD - Holds Above 0.6500, Looks To Test Higher
The AUD had a range overnight of 0.6506 - 0.6534, Asia is opening around 0.6515. The AUD has managed to hold above 0.6500 as US stocks continue to press higher and the USD remains under pressure. Traders will be watching for a sustained move back above 0.6550 but with US CPI tomorrow it might have to wait a little longer.
- (Bloomberg) -- “Australia’s securities regulator said it will begin testing a more streamlined process for local IPOs to encourage listings. The trial aims to reduce the typical 20-week timeline by about one week.”
- MNI US TSYS: US Marines Deployed to Los Angeles. Muted reaction so far, stocks pared gains after wires reported a battalion of Marines (appr 500) to be deployed to Los Angeles.
- The AUD found decent demand back towards the 0.6500 area overnight as the market eyes a potential extension higher.
- Price remains in the 0.6350 - 0.6550 range, a sustained break above 0.6550 is needed for the move higher to accelerate. Price looks set to test the top end of the range but I am not sure how far it extends until we get US CPI tomorrow out the way.
- Expect buyers to continue to be around on dips while the support in the AUD holds, a close back below 0.6350 is needed to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.64200(AUD771m)/ 0.6460(AUD 529m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6350(AUD 711m June 12), 0.6600(AUD643m June 12)
- CFTC Data shows Asset managers maintaining their shorts, the Leveraged community though continued to add to their shorts again.
Data/Event: Westpac Consumer Confidence, NAB Business Confidence
Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
