FOREX: AUDJPY Extends Declines to 1.00%, EURJPY Tests Below 156.00
Feb-21 18:21
- Friday’s session has been a tale of two halves for EURJPY. Initial comments from BOJ Governor Ueda sparked an impressive relief rally for Cross/JPY, as he told parliament the Bank would buy bonds nimbly should yields rise sharply. EURJPY rose sharply higher in tandem, reaching an intra-day high of 158.22.
- However, a multitude of factors have prompted a sharp turnaround, with the cross now testing below the 156.00 mark ahead of the weekend close. The weaker-than-expected French services PMI set the tone for the single currency, and the late weakness for major US equity benchmarks has underpinned the souring risk sentiment, weighing specifically on EURJPY. Price action has been exacerbated by the lower US yields following the soft US data, President Trump proclaiming that it is not important for Zelenskiy to be at the peace talks, and desks citing late reports of “new” coronavirus concerns all adding pressure.
- As such, USDJPY has also slipped to a fresh session low below 149.00, keeping the bearish sentiment for the pair in focus. Price action this week has seen spot narrow the gap substantially to 148.65, a key support.
- Broad risk off is weighing on the likes of AUD, NZD and CAD, all exhibiting losses of around 0.5% and underperforming the more moderate declines for EUR and GBP. AUDJPY losses are now totalling 1% on the session. Risk-off in emerging market FX has been less evident, with the lower treasury yields likely offsetting somewhat.
- German elections take focus over the weekend, before New Zealand retail sales and German IFO data cross. There is a public holiday in Japan Monday.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review: $13B 20Y Bond Auction Re-Open Trades Through
Jan-22 18:07
Tsy futures bounce off lows (TYH5 trading 108-17, -6.5), after decent $13B 20Y bond auction re-open (912810UF3) breaks two-consecutive tails, trading 1bp through: 4.900% high yield vs. 4.910% WI; 2.750x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.50x.
- Indirect take-up rises to 69.52% vs. 62.00% last month; direct bidder take-up 20.08% vs. 20.1% prior; primary dealer take-up falls to 10.40% vs. 17.90% prior.
- The next 20Y auction is tentatively scheduled for February 19.
FOREX: Higher Core Yields/Equities Weighs on JPY, Supportive of EMFX Recovery
Jan-22 18:04
- Major equity indices have continued their impressive advance on Wednesday, consistently weighing on the Japanese Yen throughout the US session. This has allowed USDJPY to outperform, rising around 0.75% to 156.65 as we approach the APAC crossover. Higher core yields have also been supportive of this price dynamic, while a 4bp move for 5-year treasury yields also provided support to the broader dollar index.
- USDJPY move extends the rally from Tuesday’s lows to around 1% ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting, where a hike is broadly expected, especially due to no market turbulence in the aftermath of Trump’s inauguration. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.48, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger remain at 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
- Elsewhere, initial price action saw the Euro extend its most recent strength, pushing to a new 2025 high of 1.0457 against the greenback. The rally was met with firm resistance at the 50-day EMA and the pair has subsequently drifted lower, back to 1.0415.
- Broader risk optimism has been particularly supportive of the emerging market FX basket, highlighted by a significant rally for the Brazilian Real. After breaking the psychological 6.00 mark, USDBRL picked up momentum through the 50-day EMA, extending session lows below 5.92 ahead of the close. All LatAm peers have also trade in a bullish manner.
- Additionally, EURPLN (-0.65%) looks set to close below the key 4.25 handle for the first time since the early onset of the pandemic, with the zloty buoyed by recent hawkish communication from the NBP.
- Canada retail sales and US jobless claims headlines the docket on Thursday, however, the focus may be on any commentary from political leader at the WEF in Davos.
FED: US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.900%; ALLOT 98.74%
Jan-22 18:02
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.900%; ALLOT 98.74%
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.40% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 20.08% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.52% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.75
