EU TECHNOLOGY: ASML: Q225 Results

The Norwegian trade surplus narrowed to NOK46.1bln in May, down from NOK54.6bln in April and NOK53.2bln a year ago. Total exports fell to NOK138.2bln (vs NOK146.1bln in April, NOK149.2bln in May ’24). Statistics Norway highlights lower oil prices as the main driver of this decline, but crude oil exports measured in barrels were also down 7% Y/Y. Norges Bank monetary policy is mostly ineffective at responding to swings in the goods trade balance, which is heavily dictated by global demand and broader uncertainty. However, the relatively stable development of goods imports (NOK92.1bln vs NOK91.5bln prior) is consistent with domestic data indicating a relatively resilient mainland demand backdrop. 

• On a 12m rolling basis, the goods trade balance remains ~14% of nominal GDP.
• Mainland exports fell to NOK60.5bln from NOK65.1bln in April, but were still up slightly from a year ago (NOK59.9bln). The mainland trade deficit widened to NOK31.6bln (vs NOK26.4bln prior). On a 12m rolling basis, Norway runs a structural mainland trade deficit of ~6-7% of GDP.
• Norway is mostly impacted by trade tensions indirectly, with exports to the US worth just over 1% of total exports. In comparison, exports to the EU are worth around 65% of total exports.
• Looking at just mainland exports, the EU makes just ~55% of the total, but the US makes up a more material 9%. In May, mainland exports to the US were NOK5.1bln, down from NOK5.3bln for the lowest since December 2024. 

• Some Overnight Desks may have pointed out to some USD strength Overnight following the War in the Middles East, but we are not seeing that into the European session.
• The Dollar was printing some earlier lows against some Asian, EM Currencies, ZAR, ILS, TWD, CNY printed new intraday highs, but all in small.
• In G10s, the Dollar is mostly closer to flat, the SEK is down 0.23%, and on the Opposite side the AUD and NZD are the tiny ~0.10% best performers.
• Looking at the past Month, the Greenback is in deep red territory still with the Tariff Risks the main Global concern going forward.
• The closest Technical in G10 is in the USDCAD, with the Next support coming  at 1.3575 Low Jun 13.

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $73.52 @ 07:20 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.62 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.