ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equity Flows Muted As Tech Stocks Sell-Off
Jul-24 2024 23:35
- South Korea: South Korean equities saw outflows of $216m yesterday, contributing to a net outflow of $657m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $131m, compared to the 20-day average inflow of $101m and the 100-day average inflow of $110m. Year-to-date, South Korea has experienced substantial inflows totaling $18.749b.
- Taiwan: The local market was closed on Wednesday due to a Typhoon, expected heavily selling to resume once the market reopens after the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index fell 5.41% on Wednesday, with the Index now off 14% from all time highs made on July 7th. The 5-day average outflow is $901m, higher than the 20-day average outflow of $380m and the 100-day average outflow of $77m. Year-to-date, Taiwan has experienced outflows totaling $2.855b.
- India: Indian equities saw outflows of $185m Tuesday, resulting in a net inflow of $1.833b over the past five trading days. The 5-day average inflow is $367m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $306m and significantly higher than the 100-day average outflow of $50m. Year-to-date, India has experienced inflows totaling $4.877b.
- Indonesia: Indonesian equities recorded outflows of $23m yesterday, leading to a net inflow of $49m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $10m, below the 20-day average outflow of $8m and close to the 100-day average outflow of $11m. Year-to-date, Indonesia has experienced outflows totaling $149m.
- Thailand: Thailand saw an inflow of $11m yesterday, resulting in a net inflow of $76m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average inflow is $15m, better than the 20-day average outflow of $10m and the 100-day average outflow of $26m. Year-to-date, Thailand has seen significant outflows amounting to $3.279b.
- Malaysia: Malaysian equities experienced outflows of $8m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day net inflow of $18m. The 5-day average inflow is $4m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $16m and the 100-day average outflow of $3m. Year-to-date, Malaysia has experienced inflows totaling $165m.
- Philippines: Were closed on Wednesday due to a Typhoon. The 5-day average inflow is $14m, better than the 20-day average inflow of $4m and the 100-day average outflow of $6m. Year-to-date, the Philippines has seen outflows totaling $446m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2024 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -216 | -657 | 18749 |
| Taiwan (USDmn)** | 290 | -4506 | -2855 |
| India (USDmn)* | -185 | 1833 | 4877 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | -23 | 49 | -149 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | 11 | 76 | -3279 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -8 | 18 | 165 |
| Philippines (USDmn)** | 8 | 68 | -446 |
| Total | -123 | -3119 | 17062 |
| * Up to 23nd July | |||
| ** Closed due to Typhoon |
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed, Modest Gains For US Tsys, Nvidia Rout Continued
Jun-24 2024 23:19
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM +0.5) are little changed after US tsys posted modest gains overnight.
- US equities finished mixed. The Dow was higher, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% while the Nasdaq dropped 1% led by Nvidia. Nvidia tumbled ~7% to be 13% lower over the past three sessions.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
- The bills strip is little changed.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 13bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 3.37%.
- Today, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer Confidence. The slightly more hawkish-sounding RBA on June 18 will likely keep sentiment weak and maybe even drive a further fall.
- However, the focus will be on May’s CPI Monthly tomorrow. The May CPI is expected to post an increase of 3.8% y/y up from 3.6% the previous month. Forecasts range from 3.5% to 4.0% with most around 3.7-3.8%. April did not include a comprehensive update of the services components, but May will. Housing costs, insurance, electricity prices and personal services are likely to rise.
- RBA Assistant Governor Kent will speak tomorrow at 0935 AEST and Deputy Governor Hauser on Thursday at 2000 AEST.
BONDS: NZGBS: Unchanged, Subdued Start To The Trading Week
Jun-24 2024 22:59
In local morning trade, NZGBs are unchanged after a subdued start to the trading week for global bonds. Newsflow was light. Indeed, the global economic calendar for the entire week looks fairly light. US PCE deflator data, Fedspeak, Tsy supply and the first US Presidential election debate, later in the week, are the highlights.
- Further weakness in big tech equities, including a third straight drop in Nvidia (-13% over that period for over -$400bn in market cap), weighed on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 with respective losses of -1% and -0.3%. Both closed with record highs last Tuesday.
- The US tsy 10-year finished 2bps richer at 4.23%, while the 2-year yield was 1bp lower at 4.72%.
- The Westpac Banking Corp. and McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index fell 13 points to 91.4 in Q2.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 30bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.5% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 3.5% Apr-33 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
JGB TECHS: (U4) Retreats Off June Highs
Jun-24 2024 22:45
- RES 3: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.88/145.95 - High May 8 / High Mar 25
- PRICE: 143.50 @ 16:49 BST Jun 24
- SUP 1: 142.85 - Low May 30 (cont)
- SUP 2: 142.06 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 141.65 - 1.00 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
The weekly rally in JGB futures persisted through the Friday close, with prices topping pre-NFP levels to print 143.68. Key resistance remains at 145.95, the Mar 28 high. A break would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 147.74, the mid-January high. The bounce off late May lows has called into question the sustainability of the bear trend this year, despite the contract recently trading through key support at 143.44, the Nov 1 low. This exposes 141.65, a Fibonacci projection.
