EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina Central Bank Reserves

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4264 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14 
• PRICE: 1.3865 @ 15:59 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.3822 Low Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD traded lower Monday, as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s move down marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4028, the Apr 3 low.  

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6343 High Apr 14  
• PRICE: 0.6324 @ 15:54 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 0.6222 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following a strong reversal last week. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6265. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6222, the 20-day EMA.

• Treasuries looked to finish near late Monday highs (TYM5 +30.5 at 110-22, yield -.1176 to 4.3720%), stocks firmer despite ongoing tariff uncertainty. Information Technology sector shares still lead gainers in late trade despite ongoing tariff uncertainty after Trump denied that US officials said smartphones, computers, and other consumer electronics were excluded from tariffs over the weekend.
• "There was no tariff exception" announcement Trump said, while officials are "looking at chips, whole electronics supply chain; chips to be assessed in national Security tariff probes." Nevertheless, "markets very strong once they got used to tariffs" Trump posted Monday.
• Sentiment improved after midday on a couple items: Pres Trump said he was "exploring possible exemptions to his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts" while Fed Gov Waller called for "flexible" monetary policy while also maintaining his view that the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to be temporary.
• Initial greenback weakness was exacerbated by a more optimistic tone for risk sentiment, assisted by the tariff reprieves for key tech products (released late on Friday). This allowed the USD index to edge back towards Friday’s cycle low of 99.01. 5-year treasury yields are 14bps lower on the session, providing an additional dollar headwind.
• Looking forward to Tuesday's data calendar: Empire Manufacturing and Import/Export Price Index data at 0830ET followed by US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill sales at 1130ET.