OIL PRODUCTS: ARA oil product stockpiles according to Insights Global:

• The Conference Board consumer survey was markedly weaker than expected in September.
• Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
• Most notably considering the focus on the labor market, there was another sizeable decline for the labor differential, to 12.6 after another downward revision to 15.9 (initial 16.4).
• This labor differential doesn’t always guide the monthly change in the unemployment rate but directionally it continues to imply further sizeable increases having briefly held at 4.25/4.22% in Jul/Aug after swift increases earlier in the year.
• Jobs plentiful 30.9 after 32.7 (initial 32.8) for a fresh low since Mar 2021, Jobs hard to get 18.3 after 16.8 (initial 16.4) for the highest since Feb 2021.

Dozens of ports on the US Eastern seaboard could go on strike next week after negotiations between ports and the union representing longshoremen stalled without an agreement. A strike could involve up to 45,000 dockworkers and affect more than half of container goods shipped to and from the US. 

• The Financial Times reports that the ports, “receive 41 per cent of the country’s containerised port volume and their closure would have a “devastating impact” on the US economy, a coalition of 177 trade groups warned last week.”
• Semafor reports: “President Joe Biden has said he won’t stop the labor action, but his administration will likely try to intervene, one retail leader told Freightwaves, because Democratic nominee Kamala Harris “does not want that kind of an economic headache before the election.””
• Bloomberg reports that Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, said in a note today: “The consequences will be severe,” adding that there are already ships carrying “billions of dollars of cargo” heading for the US and “these ships can’t turn back and they can’t realistically re-route to the US west coast."

Figure 1: Amount of Caro Handled by Major US Ports in Q2 2024

Source: Semafor