EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1797 High May 6
- RES 3: 1.1742 High May 13
- RES 2: 1.1725 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - Jun 24 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.1658/1711 High Aug 28 / High Aug 20 & 21 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1592 @ 16:47 BST Sep 02
- SUP 1: 1.1566 Low Sep 02
- SUP 2: 1.1552 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.1512 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.1455 Low Jul 31
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. However, the pair is trading at its recent lows and attention is on the next important support at 1.1552, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.1711, the Aug 20 and 21 high.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Large Sep'26 10Y Call Spreads
- 40,000 TYU6 108.25/109.25 call spds, 27 ref 108-11.5
- Block: -40,000 TYU6 108.5/109.5 call spds, 22 vs. 108-12.5/0.30%
OPTIONS: Relatively Light Flow Monday Despite Large Broader Moves
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXV6 122.5p, bought for 38 in 2k
- OEU6 113.75/114.00cs, sold at 15 and 15.5 in 4.2k
- SFIQ6 96.15/96.25/96.35 call fly bought for 2 in 3.5k
- SFIX6 96.10/96.25/96.40 call fly bought for 3.5 in 2k
- 0NU6 95.90/96.10/96.30 call fly bought for 2.75 in 1.5k
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI Refunding Preview: Analysts Mixed On Financing Size (2/2)
As noted, borrowing requirement estimates for Q3 (Jul-Sep)'s update range widely, from $588B to $827B (vs $671B estimated by Treasury in May's refunding); for Q4 it runs from $587B to $690B. Figures assume TGA cash ends year at $950B unless noted otherwise. In descending order of Q3 borrowing expectations:
- Goldman Sachs: $827B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $638B Oct-Dec (assuming TGA target to decline to $900B by end-Q4)
- UBS: $795B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $673B Oct-Dec.
- BMO: $745B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $625B Oct-Dec.
- Deutsche: $730B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $620B Oct-Dec (assuming end-year TGA balance of $1T)
- Citi: $682B financing requirements Jul-Sep, $679B Oct-Dec.
- Wrightson ICAP: $680B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $690B Oct-Dec (assuming TGA target to decline to $900B by end-Q4)
- TD: $596B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $587B Oct-Dec.
- CIBC: $588B net marketable borrowing Jul-Sep, $633B Oct-Dec.
