US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts Stick To Rate Calls After FOMC Decision (updated)

UKMTO: UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident occurring on the evening of 28SEP2026 in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO has received a third-party report of a vessel struck by a suspected unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire. The fire has since been extinguished and the vessel is underway. 

• This corroborates earlier reports by Ambrey of an attack around that time: A commercial vessel was “reportedly impacted by a projectile” while conducting a transit in the Strait of Hormuz north of Khasab, Oman, Ambrey said late on Monday, cited by Washington Institute’s Noam Raydan.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham is due to deliver his keynote address to the Labour Party annual conference at around 14:00BST (09:00ET, 15:00CET). Livestream here. This will be Burnham's first conference speech since ousting erstwhile Labour leader and PM Sir Keir Starmer in July, and coming under a month before his gov'ts first budget statement, will garner significant media and market attention as a potential indicator of directions on key policies. 

• One of the most prominent issues that is expected to be addressed is the future of the state pension 'triple lock'. Currently, the state pension rises by whichever is highest out of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%. However, with an ageing population, the Office for Budget Responsibility claims an unchanged triple lock would see costs increase by GBP+15bln/year by 2030.
• Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell claimed that the party was committed to the triple lock for this parliament (which runs to 2029), but there is the prospect Burnham announces it will not be part of Labour's next election manifesto. Any savings would not be used to improve the UK's gov't finances, but instead go on the PM's plan of offering free social care at the point of use.
• Burnham is also expected to address his vision for the future of UK-EU relations. A UK-EU 'reset' summit was due to take place in July, but was postponed due to the change in 10 Downing Street. No new date has been publicly set and while not expected, Burnham could announce when the summit is due to take place. 

Continued...

• Speaking at the conference on 28 Sep, EU Relations Minister Hamish Falconer said the Burnham gov't wil go "further and faster" than its predecessor in rebuilding links with Brussels, adding conference would “hear a bit from the prime minister tomorrow” on the issue. The Independent reports that, according to gov't ministers, Burnham is looking to build the case for rejoining the EU and how such a pledge can be included in the next election manifesto. While opinion polling broadly indicates a fall in support for the UK's exit from the EU in recent years, moving towards a full rejoining of the EU (with stricter conditions on issues such as trading the pound for the euro) may not garner as wider public support as a looser effort to boost ties.
• The Guardian reports that Burnham could also speak on the issue of electoral reform. The report claims Burnham as a "long time advocate" of electoral reform that would see the House of Commons move away from a first-past-the-post majoritarian system to some form of proportional representation. A lengthy investigatory process would be likely before any such change.
• A shift towards some form of PR (last rejected by the electorate in a 2011 referendum, when the introduction of the Alternative Vote system was defeated 67.9%-32.1%) would risk policy paralysis, with the UK's adversarial political system unaccustomed to two, let along three-plus, party coalitions (the most recent examply being the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from 2010-15).