US PREVIEW: Analysts Mixed On Auto Sales, Eye Easter Calendar Impact (2/2)
May-13 20:36
Some analyst expectations for April's retail sales report:
- Citi: "It is likely too early to see much impact from higher gasoline prices on other spending categories. Tax refunds have been higher this year (although lower than consensus expectation) which is providing some cushioning for consumers. Overall, real consumer spending growth has slowed somewhat on a 3m/3m and 6m/6m average basis but does not look concerning. We expect nominal retail sales to continue growing in April although at a much more modest pace with total sales increasing by 0.4%MoM. Higher gasoline prices and unit auto sales will contribute to the growth in total sales. We expect modest growth in the only services component, restaurants. We expect control group sales to increase by a more modest 0.1%MoM in April with some upside risk."
- Deutsche: "Though gasoline prices should provide a boost to headline (Unch. vs. +1.7%) and ex-auto sales (+0.4% vs. +1.9%), we expect some payback on retail control (-0.1% vs. +0.7%) from a strong March print. To be sure, the weakness in our retail sales forecasts largely reflect seasonal issues around the shifting Easter holiday. Recall that Easter fell in the first week of April and in prior years this has resulted in a small boost to March retail sales at the expense of April."
- RBC: "strong headline print (+0.5% m/m), driven by higher gas prices, though weaker autos will partly offset some growth. Since retail sales are nominal, we are watching real retail sales closely for a better gauge of consumer health. Real retail sales growth has trended lower on a year-over-year basis since 2025, but we do not expect it will turn negative in the face of higher gas prices"
- TD: "Retail sales likely lost speed in April, rising 0.6% m/m after strong gas and auto sales pushed up spending in March. The control group likely also moderated to 0.5%."
- Wells Fargo: "April retail sales data will be misleading at first glance as they will largely reflect higher prices rather than volumes....While we forecast total retail sales rose 0.7% last month, after accounting for an around 0.7% gain in consumer goods prices, real retail sales were likely much weaker, potentially negative. That's the signal we're getting from high-frequency credit card data, where spending outside gasoline collapsed last month. While more volatile, the card data track decently well with the contours of retail spending."
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USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
Apr-13 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 3: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
- RES 2: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3930/67 High Apr 7 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3815 @ 16:23 BST Apr 13
- SUP 1: 1.3799 Low Apr 10
- SUP 2: 1.3773 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 1.3526 Low Mar 09
USDCAD traded lower last week. Despite the move down, a bull cycle remains intact and for now, short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 1.3773. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal a stronger reversal. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3967, the Mar 31 high and bull trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: MA Set-Up Remains Bullish
Apr-13 19:30
- RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.7161 High Mar 12
- RES 2: 0.7103 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.7095 High Apr 9
- PRICE: 0.7061 @ 16:22 BST Apr 13
- SUP 1: 0.6971 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6876 Low Apr 6
- SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6727 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
A bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The setup in the 20- and 50-day EMAs remains bullish - highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would open 0.7103, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of key resistance and a bull trigger at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First support to watch lies at 0.6971, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine the bull theme.
US TSYS: Headline Sensitivity Continues, Hope Springs
Apr-13 19:15
- Sentiment improved amid flurry of midday headlines regarding the Hormuz straight between the US and Iran, negotiations continuing even after the US blockade deadline had passed.
- US President Trump has given unscheduled remarks to reporters at the White House, starting on no tax on tips before turning to Iran. Comments re thinking Iran will now agree on nuclear follows Axios reporting a little earlier that there are gaps between the US and Iran on enrichment but a compromise appears possible.
- "TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: THINK IRAN WILL NOW AGREE ON NUCLEAR
- TRUMP: IRAN TALKS STICKING POINT WAS OVER NUCLEAR
- TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: CALLED BY OTHER SIDE, THEY WANT A DEAL" - bbg
- TYM6 trades +4 at 111-07 vs. 111-08 high, important resistance at 111-19+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Existing home sales fell sharply in March, from 4.13M to 3.98M, marking the joint-lowest since September 2024 and below the expected 4.05M. Current sales represent the equivalent of 4.1 months of supply, the highest ratio since November, suggesting loosening supply conditions. There was a decline in sales in each of the four US regions, though median sales prices (NSA) were up 1.4%.
- Support for crude waned in the second half, WTI below $100/bbl to appr $97.70/bbl vs. $105.50/bbl overnight high.
- Stocks are gaining: DJIA +.23%, SPX emini +.56%, Nasdaq +0.8%.
- Bbg US$ index well off overnight high of 1204.23, to 1196.60 after the bell (-2.11).
- LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, PPI, Fed Speakers
