US TSYS/SUPPLY: Analyst Refunding Views Don't Shift Consensus Of May '27 Upsize

• Treasuries look to finish mixed Monday, curves steeper after Bonds pared early gains - trade weaker after the bell. Late session flattener Block: -5,323 TYU6 109-20, post time bid, DV01 $346,000, vs. +2,817 USU6 112-12, post time offer, DV01 $370,000.
• The pullback last week in Treasuries highlights a key short-term resistance at 110-10+, the Jun 26 high. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a move through resistance at 110-00+, the May 29 high. The break continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal. Sights are on 110-14, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support to watch remains 109-06, the Jun 22 low.
• Projected rate hike pricing near steady vs. early morning levels (*): Jul'26 at +6.3bp (+6bp), Sep'26 at +16.9bp (+16.1bp), Oct'26 at +21.8bp (+20.4bp), Dec'26 +30.1bp (+29bp).
• The headline Services PMI came in exactly line with expectations at 54.0 (54.0 consensus, 54.5 prior), reflecting somewhat softer demand conditions vs prior as New Orders declined more than expected, to 55.1 (56.8 consensus, 57.3 prior) and Business Activity fell to 55.4 from 57.7 though both were very expansionary.
• The final June US services PMI from S&P Global was revised lower to limit the improvement seen from May to bounce only slightly above April readings. S&P Global US Services PMI: 51.2 (cons & flash 51.3) in June final after 50.7 in May and 51.0 in Apr; US Composite PMI: 51.9 (cons & flash 52.2) in June final after 51.5 in May and 51.7 in Apr.
• Gov Waller says on a panel Monday, when asked about whether the Fed needed to re-commit to its inflation target: "We've had inflation above target for five years, and so one of the issues is, yes, we'll get back to 2%.... we haven't got there, as you know, as fast as we wanted to, for lots of reasons, but maybe we will now....I've never been anything but committed to a 2% target....the issue is just how fast we get there."
• Look ahead to Tuesday: Japan’s 30 yr bond auction may garner attention overnight, before German IP and the BOE Financial stability review. US weekly ADP and trade data are then scheduled.

• RES 4: 163.75 Top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low 
• RES 3: 163.62 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 162.84 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 162.08 @ 20:20 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 160.49 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 160.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.58 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25  

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north and last week’s sharp pullback appears to have been a correction. Sights are on key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 162.84, the Jun 1 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 163.79, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low. Key support to watch is 160.15, the 50-day EMA.

• US equity indexes are trading firmer late Monday, the DJIA off this morning's new record high of  53052.70, while SPX eminis and Nasdaq indexes, while making decent gains - remain off early June record highs.
• Tech stocks led declines late last week after South Korea's tech heavy Kospi index fell sharply on profit taking/position unwinds amid concerns over overstretched valuations and growing competition.
• Risk sentiment improved for IT sector shares early Monday, however, after President Trump extolled Dell computers after Michael and Susan Dell pledged more than $6 billion to the Trump Accounts initiative launched July 4. Shares of Dell jumped nearly 8% early Monday - are appr 3.8% higher in late trade.
• Other tech gainers included: Arista Networks Inc (+7.12%), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (+6.83%), Western Digital Corp (6.25%), QUALCOMM (+5.63%) and Monolithic Power Systems (5.25%).