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RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-7bps softer across meetings today. 

• Nevertheless, pricing still remains mixed compared to February’s pre-RBA Decision levels—meetings through May are 1-2bps firmer, while those beyond are 2-20bps softer.
• A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 11% probability, with a cumulative 69bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%). 

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-RBA Levels

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

The risk-off tone continues to weigh on risk-sensitive Aussie with regional equity markets following the US lower after the S&P fell 2.7% on Monday. AUDUSD is off its intraday low of 0.6259 but is still down slightly to 0.6276 after a high of 0.6285 earlier. The USD is also lower with the BBDXY down 0.2%. 

• AUDJPY is 0.4% lower at 92.10 as the yen benefits from flight-to-quality flows. The pair is off its intraday low of 91.82 though. AUDEUR is also down 0.3% to 0.5778 and AUDGBP -0.2% to 0.4867.
• Kiwi is also struggling given the deterioration in risk appetite leaving AUDNZD 0.1% higher at 1.1028, close to today’s high.
• Survey data showed a sharp improvement in Westpac’s consumer confidence measure in March boosted by lower inflation and the February rate cut. NAB’s February business confidence deteriorated but it has been volatile, while conditions were little changed. Prices moderated but costs were higher.
• Equities are selling off with the ASX down 1.3%, Nikkei -2.3%, Hang Seng -1.4% and S&P e-mini -0.6%. Oil prices are off today’s lows but WTI is still -0.5% to $65.72/bbl. Copper is 0.4% lower and iron ore continues to trade around $100-101/t.
• Later US January JOLTS job openings/layoffs print and given growth concerns are likely to be monitored closely. Bloomberg consensus is for steady 7600k vacancies and a slight pickup in layoffs to 1806k. The Eurogroup/Ecofin meetings take place today. 

China saw new car average prices reach CNY30,000 during the first two months of the year, a decrease of 12.6%, with new energy vehicles down 13%, data from the Passenger Car Association showed. Plug-in hybrid models saw price reductions of less than 10%, indicating stronger demand, the Association said. The market will heat up after March as the government introduces subsidies, easing the ongoing price war.