POLAND: Above-Forecast Retail Sales Falsify "Death Of Consumer" Hypothesis
Dec-20 09:38
Polish retail sales exceeded expectations, with local desks noting this with relief and arguing that the earlier talk of the "death of the consumer" was premature.
- ING note that retail sales have almost recouped losses from September. They point to strong demand for vehicles ahead of the tightening of the rules on CO2 emissions. They expect consumption to be stronger in 4Q24 than in 3Q24.
- mBank note that the earlier hiccups in consumption (so-called "death of the consumer") went away and it seems that the dismal September readings were a temporary anomaly.
- Pekao write that retail sales surprised to the upside for the second month in a row. A low comparative base in fuels, a rebound in durable goods and construction materials sales and a strong outturn for pharmaceuticals helped. They note that the "death of the Polish consumer in September was declared prematurely."
- The Polish Economic Institute wrote that retail sales were driven by vehicle sales (+21.7% Y/Y) and purchases made in shopping malls. According to their calculations, spending on consumption has increased by around 3% Y/Y in 2024. In their view, the large increase in inventories may still be revised, which would likely boost consumption. They predict that consumption should grow by around 3.5% in 2025 as wage growth should outpace inflation by around 4pp, while households may increase their propensity to spend.
| Data | Reading | BBG Estimate |
| Real Retail Sales | +3.1% Y/Y | +0.8% Y/Y |
| Real Retail Sales | -1.2% M/M | -2.9% M/M |
| Retail Sales | +3.4% Y/Y | +1.9% Y/Y |
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