US DATA: A Soft ADP Report Maintains Its Prior Cooler Trend
Sep-04 12:29
- ADP employment was a little softer than expected in August at 54k (cons 68k) after a marginally upward revised 106k (initial 104k) in July.
- ADP employment has pointed to subdued private sector hiring for some months now, with the three-month average inching up to 46k in August.
- This average was 37k in July, compared to average private payrolls growth of 52k after last month’s huge downward revisions which have left payrolls data more in keeping with the slowdown in labor demand seen this year.
- We again point to the significant difference between results for education & health employment, with ADP still likely far weaker despite a relative improvement in latest data. The ADP series fell -12k in August after -40k in July vs +79k in the BLS private payrolls data.
- Elsewhere in the release, whilst only modest, increases in employment were seen in all firm sizes. Firms that had been struggling in recent months, bizarrely those with 20-49 and 250-499 employees, saw only very mild improvements: 20-49 saw a 2k increase after a -27k cumulative decline in the prior three months and 250-499 saw 7k after a cumulative -35k.
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