STIR: A Little Over 1 BoE Hike Priced Through Dec, PMIs Eyed

• RES 4: $95.30 - High May 18 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: $89.90 - High Jun 3 
• RES 2: $88.65 - 76.4% retracement of the May 18 - Jul 2 bear leg 
• RES 1: $86.06 - Intraday high   
• PRICE: $86.03 @ 07:27 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: $77.22/67.12 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $64.89 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg
• SUP 3: $63.92 - 2.000 proj of the May 18 - 28 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.85 - 2.236 proj of the May 18 - 28 - Jun 3 price swing  

Last week’s rally in WTI futures delivered a breach of $78.35, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average and fresh cycle highs this week, signals scope for a stronger recovery and paves the way for a climb towards $88.65, the 76.4% retracement point of the bear leg between May 18 - Jul 2. Key support has been defined at $67.12, the Jul 2 low. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at $77.22.

• RES 4: $4773.5 - High May 12 
• RES 3: $4595.2 - High May 29
• RES 2: $4241.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $4141.7 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $4117.2 @ 07:29 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: $3943.3 - Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: $3900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 2025
• SUP 4: $3771.1 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2  - Mar 3 price swing

Short-term gains in Gold are considered corrective. The trend set-up remains bearish - moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Furthermore the recent breach of $4024.0, the Jun 11 low, confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. A continuation of the bear leg would open the $3900.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at $4241.4. 

• Euribor futures have mostly shrugged off overnight oil price increases with Brent another 2.1% higher around the $93/bbl mark, currently sitting 1-1.5 ticks lower.
• There has been some selling after latest headlines from Reuters re Iran’s army saying it targeted US military in Jordan and Bahrain bases.
• No net spillover from UK CPI, where headline was slightly softer than expected whilst core was a little firmer than expected albeit helped by rounding.
• There is very low likelihood of action from the ECB tomorrow (1bp hike priced) but with 22.5bp of hikes priced for the following meeting in September.
• As such, expect focus to be on President Lagarde’s characterisation of risks and how latest developments compare with the latest scenarios from June. MNI ECB Preview: https://mni.marketnews.com/4fNFmAc
• There’s little of note on the Eurozone data side today.