MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: A Week of Hefty Hikes
The key focus of the week will be the policy rate decisions from the RBA, BOC and ECB. As global inflationary pressures continue to build, all three are expected to deliver hefty hikes this week.
Monday:
Final Services PMIs: Final service PMIs are seen confirming preliminary estimates in the Eurozone and UK, confirming 2020-lows as services stall.
First and final PMIs are due for Italy and Spain, with Italy anticipated to see a small uptick albeit unlikely shift out of contractionary territory as demand continues to suffer under surging inflation. Spain is forecasted to weaken, by 1-2 points however remaining above breakeven and continuing to see growth for the seventh consecutive month. Both economies have seen a muted summer tourist season as consumer confidence remains shaken.
Eurozone Retail: Euro area retail remains pessimistic, set to expand modestly by +0.4% m/m from the -1.2% m/m contraction recorded in June. PMI surveys have highlighted slowing consumer demand as spending tightens due to economic uncertainty, contributing to pessimistic outlooks heading towards year-end.
US markets will be closed due to Labour Day.
Tuesday:
RBA Rate Decision: The RBA is set to tighten policy for a fifth consecutive meeting on Tuesday, with an expected 50 basis point hike to 2.35% pushing rates to near the estimated neutral rate. CPI printed at a headline annual rate of 6.1% in Q2, however, a range of indicators that show higher rates are starting to bite.
ISM Services PMI: The ISM services PMI will likely be again weaker in August, following a modest improvement in July. Consensus expectations are for a value around 55.0, which would be the lowest since mid-2020. The S&P Global services PMI final print should confirm the flash estimate of the harshest contraction since 2020. Wage pressures and sliding demand remain concerning, despite outlooks beginning to brighten.
Wednesday:
Germany Industrial Production: It’s unlikely that much optimism will be found in Germany’s July IP data, as persistent supply issues, soaring energy prices and gas security concerns continue to hamper the industry. A -0.6% m/m and -2.1% y/y contraction are expected, worsening from June.
US Trade Balance: The US trade deficit is forecasted to narrow by around $9.3 billion to -$70.3 billion in July, bolstered by fuel exports and slowing demand for vehicle imports.
Bank of Canada Policy Meeting: The BOC is seen delivering a hot 75bp hike at their September meeting, bringing rates to 3.25% as excess demand remains a key concern. This comes despite inflation showing signs of cooling and softer-than-anticipated GDP growth.
Thursday:
ECB Policy Meeting: Another hawkish shift is on the cards for the ECB on Thursday, with the likelihood of a first-ever 75bp hike growing after another upside surprise to inflation bringing CPI to +9.1% in July. 50bp remains very much a possibility as recessionary expectations remain concerning. With national core CPI figures continuing to climb, forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded.
Friday:
Canada Labour Force Survey: Canada’s August labour report will unlikely see the unemployment rate shift from 4.9%, however, another slide in employment would be a concerning factor for the BOC as policy continues to tighten.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 05/09/2022 | 2300/0900 | * |  | AU | IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI |
| 05/09/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI |
| 05/09/2022 | 0130/1130 |  | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 05/09/2022 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | IHS Markit Final China Services PMI |
| 05/09/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | CH | GDP |
| 05/09/2022 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 05/09/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/09/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | retail sales |
| 05/09/2022 | 1530/1630 |  | UK | BOE Cathy Mann Speech | |
| 06/09/2022 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 06/09/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/09/2022 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/09/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/09/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 06/09/2022 | 0900/1900 | *** |  | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 06/09/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) |
| 06/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 06/09/2022 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 06/09/2022 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 06/09/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 07/09/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/09/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production |
| 07/09/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Retail Sales |
| 07/09/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 07/09/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | EU | GDP (2nd est.) |
| 07/09/2022 | 0900/1100 | * |  | EU | Employment |
| 07/09/2022 | 0900/1000 |  | UK | BOE Committee Hearing on August MonPol Report | |
| 07/09/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 07/09/2022 | - | *** |  | CN | Trade |
| 07/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/09/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 07/09/2022 | 1300/0900 |  | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 07/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | * |  | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 07/09/2022 | 1400/1000 |  | US | MNI Webcast With Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 07/09/2022 | 1635/1235 |  | US | Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard | |
| 07/09/2022 | 1800/1400 |  | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 07/09/2022 | 1800/1400 |  | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 08/09/2022 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Trade Balance |
| 08/09/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** |  | CH | unemployment |
| 08/09/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 08/09/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/09/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Current Account |
| 08/09/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** |  | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 08/09/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** |  | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 08/09/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** |  | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 08/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 08/09/2022 | 1245/1445 |  | EU | ECB Post-Meeting Press Conference | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1310/0910 |  | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | * |  | US | Services Revenues |
| 08/09/2022 | 1415/1615 |  | EU | ECB President Lagarde's Podcast | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 08/09/2022 | 1500/1100 | ** |  | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 08/09/2022 | 1525/1125 |  | CA | BOC Deputy Rogers "Economic Progress Report" speech | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1530/1130 |  | US | New York Fed's Patricia Zobel | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1600/1200 |  | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 08/09/2022 | 1900/1500 | * |  | US | Consumer Credit |
| 09/09/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CPI |
| 09/09/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 09/09/2022 | 0600/0800 | * |  | NO | CPI Norway |
| 09/09/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Industrial Production |
| 09/09/2022 | - |  | EU | ECB Lagarde & Panetta in Eurogroup & informal Ecofin Meetings | |
| 09/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 09/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 09/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/09/2022 | 1400/1000 |  | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 09/09/2022 | 1600/1200 |  | US | Kansas City Fed's Esther George | |
| 09/09/2022 | 1600/1200 |  | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller |
