US MBA: REFIS -8% SA; PURCH INDEX -2% SA THRU AUG 26 WK
Aug-31 11:00
- US MBA: REFIS -8% SA; PURCH INDEX -2% SA THRU AUG 26 WK
- US MBA: UNADJ PURCHASE INDEX -23% VS YEAR-EARLIER LEVEL
- US MBA: 30-YR CONFORMING MORTGAGE RATE 5.80% VS 5.65% PREV
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US TSYS: Bonds Weaker, Focus on ISMs, Geopol Risks: Pelosi's Asia Tour
Aug-01 10:54
Tsy futures trading steady/mixed in the lead-up to the NY open, inside overnight range with short end outperforming, bonds weaker (30YY 3.0146 +.0049). Very light overnight volumes to kick off new week, TYU2<225k at the moment.
- Muted knock-on react to sub-50 PMIs for Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone in early London trade, focus turns to US data at midmorning:
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (52.3 est) at 0945ET followed by Construction Spending MoM (0.3% est) and ISMs at 1000ET: Mfg (52.0 est) Prices Paid (73.5 est), New Orders (49.0 est), Employment (48.2 est).
- No scheduled Fed speakers at the moment does not preclude pop-up speaker interviews, op-eds (MN Fed Kashkari late Fri: "we are a long way away from" getting "inflation back down to 2 percent".
- No immediate react to CNN headline that US House speaker Pelosi "expected to visit Taiwan" on her whirlwind tour of Indo-Pacific countries: Malaysia, Japan, South Korea.
- Cross assets: spot Gold +6.50 at 1772.44, Crude weaker WTI -1.52 at 97.10, stocks weaker but off overnight lows: ESU2 -10.00 at 4123.50 after climbing to highest levels since June 9 last Fri. Earnings resume while most anncd after todays close.
- Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 1.4bps at 2.8985%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 2.6894%, 10-Yr is up 1.1bps at 2.6595%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 3.0244%.
MARKET INSIGHT: Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Confirms Bearish Condition
Aug-01 10:52
- S&P E-Minis traded higher Friday, reinforcing bullish conditions and maintaining the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher once again Friday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40.
- EURUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The pair is trading above support at 1.0097, Jul 27 low, and attention is on immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. The sharp drop in EURGBP last week, reinforces bearish conditions and puts the cross at new multi-month lows. The latest spell of weakness has also resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. EURJPY is trading lower again and trend conditions remain bearish. This reinforces the current downward cycle and marks an extension of last week’s breach of support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low.
- Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Friday. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1785.3. A break of this average would suggest potential for an extension and expose trendline resistance at $1812.0. WTI futures traded higher Friday and pierced the 50-day EMA. The contract however pulled back from the day high and remains below the average - the EMA intersects at $100.76.
- Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Fresh highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs last week reinforce this set-up. The move higher highlights an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high.
TAIWAN: CNN: US House Spkr Pelosi Expected To Make Taipei Trip-Officials
Aug-01 10:52
CNN reporting that according to Taiwanese and US officials, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her CODEL visit to Asian allies. Trip has been seen as likely for some time, but this would appear to be the most serious indication so far that the visit is going ahead.
- Trip is still not part of Pelosi's official itinerary, and would likely cause a significant increase in tensions between Washington, D.C. and Beijing. The White House is believed to have attempted to dissuade Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, but this appears to have fallen on deaf ears.
- Pelosi in Singapore today. Set to also visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan.
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