BOBL TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Still Intact
- RES 4: 124.490 High Jun 3
- RES 3: 124.190 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 123.255 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 122.390 High Jun 15
- PRICE: 121.120 @ 05:06 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)
- SUP 4: 118.420 Low Jul 27 2011
The primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce bearish conditions. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low also confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 119.590 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.255, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Risk Off or Forced Unwinds Run Course? Stock Rebound Late
No data Friday -- But StL Fed President did appear on Fox Business interview in the afternoon. Nothing particularly new from Bullard though he did add he does not see a recession occurring this or next year.
- Bullard said he would leave the "timing" of when to hike rates up to Powell, but sees 50bp hike as a "good plan for now" while "the more we can frontload" hikes, the "better off we'll be." Bullard said he sees economic growth accelerating in the second half of the year to appr 2.5-3.0%, while unemployment will continue to recede.
- Early focus on headline risk with buying/short cover support possibly tied to China/covid headlines (CHINA PORT CITY TIANJIN STARTS MASS TEST IN FIVE DISTRICTS, Bbg).
- Decent overall volumes tied to accelerating Jun/Sep Tsy futures rolling, 5s and 10s lead again w/ over 240k and 175k recorded after the bell.
- Investment-grade corporate credit risk had climbed to new 2Y highs after midday as equity indexes sell-off. Back to March 2021 levels SPX eminis now appr 20% off early Jan high (4778.0) at 3829.00 (-68.75) after breaching key support / bear trigger levels of 3855.00, May 12 low AND 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont).
- Equities staged a robust rebound off lows in late equity trade, not headline driven, more program/technical while offers fade, SPX eminis nearly back to steady at 3897.75.
JGB TECHS: (M2) Correction Extends
- RES 3: 151.13 - High Mar 3
- RES 2: 150.44 - High Mar 14
- RES 1: 150.14 - High Apr 1
- PRICE: 149.80 @ 20:30 BST May 20
- SUP 1: 148.72 - Low Mar 29
- SUP 2: 148.79 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 147.95 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
The primary downtrend in JGBs remains intact although a corrective cycle is in play and the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. Key resistance to watch is at 150.14, Apr 1 high. The breach, in March, of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015 - 2020 rally at 149.65 strengthened a bearish theme and opens 148.79/147.95, which marks both the 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band and the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A break of 150.14 would alter the picture.
US STOCKS: Late Session Rebound
Equities staging a more robust rebound off lows last 20 minutes, not headline driven, more program/technical while offers fade. Current levels:
- - DJIA down 52.31 points (-0.17%) at 31197.76
- - S&P E-Mini Future down 9 points (-0.23%) at 3887.75
- - Nasdaq down 80.3 points (-0.7%) at 11306
