- The further moderation in monthly CPI inflation to 2.7% m/m in October, its lowest since November 2021, came on the back of a deceleration in food and regulated prices. Core inflation also decelerated to 2.9% m/m, from 3.3% previously, the lowest print since September 2020. However, JP Morgan notes that their preferred metric of underlying inflation (core ex food) printed at 3.5%m/m, only marginally below the previous 3.6% figure. JPM sees annual inflation falling to 120% y/y by year-end, from 193% currently.
- As noted, President Milei said after the release of the data that the monthly crawling FX peg rate will be cut to 1%, from 2%, if monthly inflation stays constant for another two months. He said that monthly inflation – measured by the headline figure minus what he calls induced inflation - is at 0.2% m/m currently.
- No macro data are due today, with October budget figures expected on Friday, followed by latest trade data next week.
ARGENTINA: FX Crawling Peg Rate Will Slow If Monthly Inflation Remains Constant
Last updated at:Nov-13 12:43By: Keith Gyles
LatAm
- The further moderation in monthly CPI inflation to 2.7% m/m in October, its lowest since November 2021, came on the back of a deceleration in food and regulated prices. Core inflation also decelerated to 2.9% m/m, from 3.3% previously, the lowest print since September 2020. However, JP Morgan notes that their preferred metric of underlying inflation (core ex food) printed at 3.5%m/m, only marginally below the previous 3.6% figure. JPM sees annual inflation falling to 120% y/y by year-end, from 193% currently.
- As noted, President Milei said after the release of the data that the monthly crawling FX peg rate will be cut to 1%, from 2%, if monthly inflation stays constant for another two months. He said that monthly inflation – measured by the headline figure minus what he calls induced inflation - is at 0.2% m/m currently.
- No macro data are due today, with October budget figures expected on Friday, followed by latest trade data next week.
