ANZ activity indicators for November were very soft with the activity outlook falling to -13.7, the worst since the pandemic-affected August 2020 reading. Business confidence fell to -57.1, the second consecutive monthly fall and the worst since June 2022. Both series are well below their long-term averages of +24.5 and +4.6 respectively. The RBNZ’s 400bp of tightening appears to be impacting business sentiment and further data prints such as this are likely to mean a slowing in the pace of tightening in February 2023.

NZ Growth outlook

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ANZ