The right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) hit a record high in opinion polling by YouGov carried out 3-8 Jan, with support hitting 24%, just 5% behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on 29%. The next federal election is not due until Oct 2025, but the European Parliament elections on 9 June will act as a key indicator of whether the AfD's surge in support over the latter half of 2023 can convert into votes at the ballot box.

• The electoral system used by Germany in EP elections, and the fact that the country's seat total (96) is close to 100, means that a party's nationwide vote share is often very close to the number of seats won. In 2019, the AfD came in fourth with 11.0% of the vote, resulting in 11 MEPs. As such, should polling for the AfD be reflected at the ballot box it could more than double the party's representation.
• There is a potential obstacle for a number of parties, but perhaps most notably the AfD, in the form of the new party launched by far-left lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht on 8 Jan. Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW) sits as a populist left-wing party. In this instance the political spectrum forms a horseshoe, with BSW and AfD at different ends, but relatively close on some policies including a reducing immigration, ending costly environmental policies, and halting weapons supplies to Ukraine.

Source: Forsa, INSA, FGW, YouGov, Walhkreisprognose, Infratest dimap, Ipsos, GMS, Verian, Allensbach, MNI