• ADP employment was modestly lower than expected in June at 150k (cons 165k) after a slightly upward revised 157k (initial 152k) in May.
  • The miss isn’t large considering at times loose correlation with private payrolls but the composition also read a little dovish. This from the ADP chief econ: "Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based. Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality [+63k], June would have been a downbeat month."
  • The separate pay insights report showed signs of cooling: Job stayer median Y/Y pay growth slowed a tenth to 4.9% (slowest since Aug 2021) after three months of 5.0% Y/Y. Job changer pay growth also slowed a tenth to 7.7% Y/Y but remains above the 7.3% Y/Y seen in January.

US DATA: A Modestly Dovish ADP Report With The Usual NFP Correlation Caveats

Last updated at:Jul-03 12:26By: Chris Harrison
  • ADP employment was modestly lower than expected in June at 150k (cons 165k) after a slightly upward revised 157k (initial 152k) in May.
  • The miss isn’t large considering at times loose correlation with private payrolls but the composition also read a little dovish. This from the ADP chief econ: "Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based. Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality [+63k], June would have been a downbeat month."
  • The separate pay insights report showed signs of cooling: Job stayer median Y/Y pay growth slowed a tenth to 4.9% (slowest since Aug 2021) after three months of 5.0% Y/Y. Job changer pay growth also slowed a tenth to 7.7% Y/Y but remains above the 7.3% Y/Y seen in January.

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