- U.Mich 1Y inflation expectations increased further to 4.4% (cons 4.0) in the preliminary November release, building on the 4.2% in the finalized October print after it had been revised up from a preliminary 3.8% for a sharp rise from the 3.2% in September.
- 5-10Y expectations also saw a surprise increase to 3.2% (cons 3.0) from 3.0%, breaking its 2.9-3.1 range seen in all but two months since Aug’21 and in turn pushing to its highest since 2011.
- As a word of caution, recall the Jun’22 preliminary report when 5-10Y expectations surprisingly jumped to 3.3% before being revised down to 3.1% in the finalized print. Powell noted that in last week’s FOMC conference when asking in Q&A. “I think the UM thing got blown out of proportion a little bit, it was actually a preliminary estimate that got revised away, and I said it was preliminary in it, but that didn't get picked up”.
- Consumer sentiment on the other hand was notably softer than expected at 60.4 (cons 63.7) after 63.8 with declines in both current conditions and expectations. It's the lowest since May.
US DATA: U.Mich Inflation Expectations Jump As Sentiment Wanes (But Only The Preliminary Release)
Last updated at:Nov-10 15:12By: Chris Harrison
- U.Mich 1Y inflation expectations increased further to 4.4% (cons 4.0) in the preliminary November release, building on the 4.2% in the finalized October print after it had been revised up from a preliminary 3.8% for a sharp rise from the 3.2% in September.
- 5-10Y expectations also saw a surprise increase to 3.2% (cons 3.0) from 3.0%, breaking its 2.9-3.1 range seen in all but two months since Aug’21 and in turn pushing to its highest since 2011.
- As a word of caution, recall the Jun’22 preliminary report when 5-10Y expectations surprisingly jumped to 3.3% before being revised down to 3.1% in the finalized print. Powell noted that in last week’s FOMC conference when asking in Q&A. “I think the UM thing got blown out of proportion a little bit, it was actually a preliminary estimate that got revised away, and I said it was preliminary in it, but that didn't get picked up”.
- Consumer sentiment on the other hand was notably softer than expected at 60.4 (cons 63.7) after 63.8 with declines in both current conditions and expectations. It's the lowest since May.
