Poland's retail sales rose 5.0% Y/Y in July, missing the consensus forecast of +6.0%. Real retail sales were up 4.4% Y/Y against expectations of a 5.4% increase. Although the data outturns were weaker than expected, local desks note that consumption remains a key driver of overall growth at this stage.

• ING note that the start of 3Q2024 is slightly weaker than expected, but Poland remains on a recovery path. In their view, its main and essentially only engine is consumption.
• mBank note that retail sales data was slightly disappointing but still solid. 
• PKO write that retail sales growth remains propelled by a dynamic, albeit now slightly slower, real wage growth and the improving consumer sentiment. At the same time, other data (e.g. about card spending by PKO clients) suggest that the services sectors is faring better than the goods sectors.
• The Polish Economic Institute point to a significant increase in sales in the automotive sector (+30.1% Y/Y). They note that a dynamic increase in wages supports a rebound in consumption. Wages rose by almost 15% in 2Q2024, which allows consumers to turn more optimistic about their financial situation and become more willing to spend.