Ohio Senate candidates Democrat Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) and Republican JD Vance will face off in their first televised debate this evening. The two will hold a second debate next week.

• The debate will take place at 19:00 ET 00:00 BST and be broadcast on Nexstar Media Television.
• The Ohio Senate seat is open after the retirement of Republican Senator Rob Portman (R-OH).
• If Ryan wins, Democrats will be strong favourites to retain control of the Senate in November.
• FiveThirtyEight shows Ryan with a moderate lead over Vance, but well within the polling margin of error, and with Ohio's partisan lean towards the GOP, Vance should still be considered the slight favourite.
• Vance was endorsed by former President Donald Trump ahead of the Republican primary and has run on a law and order platform. Vance: "We need to probably hire 100,000 additional cops in this country."
• Ryan has run as a centrist, receiving support from moderate Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) “Tim [Ryan]’s a good friend. I just like Tim. We work together, his demographics and my demographics are the same. So we understand those people. He would be great for Ohio.”

Figure 1: Ohio Senate Race Polling Aggregate, % Over Time (FiveThirtyEight)