UKRAINE: Witkoff Confirms Talks w/Russia, No Date For Next Round w/Ukraine

Long end German swap spreads and ASWs have sold off in early ’26, with the burden of supply, expansive fiscal policy and lack of meaningful Dutch pension transition-related flow in swaps (expected to steepen the curve and drive pay-side activity, albeit front run by accounts last year) explaining much of the move.

• The German 30-Year swap spread hovers just above the year-to-date closing low, last -34.7bp.
• Still, money markets remain relatively sedate and don’t point to any meaningful demand stresses (an idea further underscored by orderbooks at EGB syndications seen year-to-date), with Commerzbank noting that “core GC spreads keep inching higher and we count some 40% of OATs trading above the ECB depo rate. Repo markets still remain within their range from last year though. This underscores that there are still enough cash providers to absorb the rising collateral supply, while the interbank and cross-border repo market seems to be working smoothly”.

In case missed late yesterday, we've published our preview of the upcoming US Employment Report. Refer to the publication (link) for the following: 

• Dispersion of analyst views across nonfarm paryolls growth, the unemployment rate and wage growth
• Pertinent detailed comments from analysts across the spectrum of views
• MNI analysis of a range of alternate labor indicators
• A dovish build-up to the release after last week's soft labor updates and Hassett comments

In addition to the usual areas covered in the preview, this month we also discuss: 

• Annual benchmark revision estimates
• A new birth/death model
• Seasonality and seasonal factor revisions covering the past five years of data