LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar
Apr-03 16:08
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Apr-4 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (8.8%, --)
- Apr-4 0830 Trade Balance(-$67.4B, -$67.5B)
- Apr-4 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (210k, 214k)
- Apr-4 0830 Continuing Claims (1.819M, 1.810M)
- Apr-4 1000 Philly Fed Harker fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
- Apr-4 1130 US Tsy $70B 4W, $75B 8W Bill auctions
- Apr-4 1215 Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook (text, Q&A)
- Apr-4 1245 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated Q&A economic outlook
- Apr-4 1400 Cleveland Fed Mester economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- Apr-4 1400 MN Fed Kashkari on economy (no text, Q&A)
- Apr-4 1920 StL Fed Musalem introductory remarks (no Q&A)
- Apr-4 1930 Fed Gov Kugler on enriching data (text, no Q&A)
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STIR: ECB Cut Pricing Remains Within Recent Ranges
Mar-04 15:50
ECB-dated OIS contracts continue to operate within recent ranges, with 91bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024.
- There has been little in the way of meaningful regional news flow to note this afternoon.
- In recent days, markets have cemented their expectations for the ECB's rate path ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting - even last week's inflation data failed to move the needle.
- Digestion of Thursday's decision will allow markets to reassess the timing and depth of any upcoming easing cycle.
- A reminder that any changes (or not) in the ECB's guidance will be backed up by a revised set of macroeconomic projections.
- Analysts currently see limited scope for the core inflation profile to be revised down, which will likely underscore a cautious tone from President Lagarde in the press conference.
- The Euribor strip is -2.0 to +2.0 ticks through the blues, having moved alongside global core FI.
- Tomorrow's calendar is highlighted by the February services PMIs, particularly in Spain and Italy which do not have a flash release.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 3.905 | 0.1 |
| Apr-24 | 3.872 | -3.2 |
| Jun-24 | 3.691 | -21.3 |
| Jul-24 | 3.540 | -36.4 |
| Sep-24 | 3.336 | -56.9 |
| Oct-24 | 3.169 | -73.5 |
| Dec-24 | 2.994 | -91.0 |
| Jan-25 | 2.859 | -104.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar05 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Mar-04 15:47
- EUR/USD: $1.0760-70(E1.4bln), $1.0840-50(E2.2bln), $1.0860-65(E843mln), $1.0895(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.00-10($1.0bln), Y149.50($1.0bln), Y150.20-40($1.6bln), Y151.50($751mln)
- EUR/JPY: Y163.50(E1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6485-05(A$3.2bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.6050-65(N$891mln), $0.6170-80(N$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3530-50($1.5bln)
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly buyer
Mar-04 15:29
ERZ4 97.25/97.50/97.75c fly, bought for 2.5 in 5k.
