US: No Clear Favourite To Win Presidency In 2024
Bookmakers see no clear favourite in the race for the presidency in 2024 as campaigning draws closer.
- According to Smarkets, President Joe Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) are marginal favourites with 25% and 24% implied probability repesectively of winning.
- Former President Donald Trump is in a close third place with 20% and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley trailing with 4.5% implied probability of winning.
- Campaigning will begin in earnest in the summer with President Biden expected to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks and DeSantis to follow at some point during the summer.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner (Smarkets)
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GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.2303 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2289 High Jan 16
- PRICE: 1.2206 @ 15:55 GMT Jan 16
- SUP 1: 1.2083 Low Jan 9
- SUP 2: 1.1999/78 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21
GBPUSD has started the week on a firmer note and the pair traded higher Monday. This reinforces current bullish conditions. Price has breached resistance at 1.2242, the Dec 19 high and a continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 1.2303, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, this would expose 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and a key resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2083, the Jan 9 low. Key support lies at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.
CANADA: Analysts Post BoC Surveys
- BMO: The BoC’s aggressive rate hikes through 2022 have clearly weighed on economic sentiment among both businesses and consumers. However, still-elevated inflation expectations will keep the Bank on alert. Consistent with our call of a 25bp hike next week before holding through the remainder of 2023.
- CIBC: With no worsening of the situation on the expectations front, it leaves the BoC with the space to focus on incoming data in determining the path for interest rates. Expect a final 25bp hike next week unless tomorrow's CPI and/or Friday's retail trade data provided a "big" surprise.
- RBC: We continue to expect a 25bp hike on Jan 25, but a pause is not entirely off the table given the relatively dovish undertone from today’s survey.
- TD: Though the outlook had weakened, recent economic data had shown incredible resiliency. This set the stage for a final 25bp before the BoC moved to the sidelines to observe the full effect of its historic rate hiking cycle on the economy.
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
- RES 3: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
- RES 2: 1.0913 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
- RES 1: 1.0874 High Jan 16
- PRICE: 1.0824 @ 15:53 GMT Jan 16
- SUP 1: 1.0665 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0486/84 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 3: 1.0422 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1
EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.0787, the May 30 2022 high and a key resistance. The breach reinforces the bullish theme. Note too that moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. The climb opens 1.0913 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.0665, the 20-day EMA.
