US DATA: Next Week's Initial Jobless Claims Data Shifted Forward
Next week's weekly Jobless Claims data will be published on Wednesday Jan 8, and not Thursday Jan 9, per the US Dept of Labor. (The rescheduling is due to the federal holiday for ex-President Carter's day of mourning).
- It's unclear whether the Census Bureau's Wholesale Trade Sales/Inventories data - the last remaining federal government-released data of the day - will be released as scheduled.
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US TSYS: US TSY FUTURES: Rising, Breaching Overnight Highs
- Treasury futures are rising again as post-ISM sellers have run their course. Futures are currently mixed with Mar'25 10Y futures +/-.5 around steady at 110-31 (10Y yield -.0020 at 4.2226%). Curves steeper but not extending top end of range, 2s10s +2.106 at 6.405 vs. 8.464 high, 5s30s +.666 at 29.393 vs. 31.068 high.
- With the day's data out of the way, attention turns to Fed Chairman Powell's moderated discussion NY Times (no text, Q&A) at 1340ET. Reminder, the Fed goes into media blackout regarding policy at midnight Friday through December 19, the day after the final FOMC annc of 2024.
MNI: **US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -5.07M TO 423.4M NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -5.07M TO 423.4M NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +3.38M TO 118.1M IN NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS +2.36M TO 214.6M IN NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.05M TO 24.2M BARRELS IN NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: SPR +1.44M TO 391.8M BARRELS IN NOV 29 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +2.8% TO 93.3% IN NOV 29 WK
US DATA: ISM Services Still In Solid Shape Despite Unexpectedly Large Pullback
November's ISM Services index saw its biggest drop since June, falling unexpectedly to a 3-month low 52.1 from 56.0 (a more modest dip to 55.7 had been expected). The standout subcomponents were stagflationary in direction: while Employment (51.5, vs 53.0 expected/prior) and New Orders (53.7, vs 56.6 expected and 57.4 prior) fell, Prices Paid unexpectedly rose (58.2 vs 57.0 expected and 58.1 prior). But while the headline index represented a setback after four consecutive gains, and the subcomponents disappointed, overall the report still suggests that the Services sector is in solid shape.
- The Employment pullback will receive outsized attention as estimates for Friday's November Employment Report are fine-tuned, but even with the dip, the 51.5 reading was higher than in any single month in the 12 months before October, suggesting continued resilience in hiring.
- Likewise, the Prices Paid were simply typical of levels seen in over the last several months, rather than any sign of significant inflationary reacceleration.
- Business activity slipped to 53.7 (from 57.2 prior), a 5th month of expansion following June's contraction.
- The New Orders drop reverses the jump to very elevated levels the prior two months (which averaged 58.4) but remain expansionary - though New Export orders were especially weak, falling 2.1 points to a 7-month low 49.6.
- Elsewhere, Inventories contracted (45.9) after 3 months of expansion, order backlogs remained in contraction for a 4th month (47.1), while Supplier Deliveries fell 6.9 points to 49.5 (per ISM: "the index was in contraction territory for the sixth time in 2024 — indicating faster supplier delivery performance").
- The November election and potential tariffs also get an anecdotal mention: "Generally, respondents’ comments were neutral to positive, and both positive and negative impacts were attributed to seasonality. Not surprisingly, election ramifications and tariffs were mentioned often, with cautionary outlooks related to the potential impact on respondents’ specific industries."
