LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, Durables, Cap Goods, Regional Fed

Feb-20 20:23

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* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET * 02/23 0800 Fed Gov Waller moderated Q&A...

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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Purported Greenland Framework Boosts Sentiment

Jan-21 20:11
  • Stocks gained earlier after saying he would not use force to acquire Greenland in Davos address -- extended highs late (but still lower for the week) after Pres Trump posts on social media he has a "framework for future deal on Greenland with NATO" adding he "won't impose Greenland-linked tariffs on Feb 1".
  • Earlier, Denmark officials said the US challenge over Greenland sovereignty "is still there" while European Parliament formally suspended the trade deal process (Turnberry Deal) after Trump's Greenland threats. Geopolitical risk remains fluid.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades up 703.54 points (1.45%) at 49198.28, S&P E-Mini Futures up 102.25 points (1.5%) at 6931.75, Nasdaq up 380.9 points (1.7%) at 23335.47.
  • A mix of Information Technology and Financials sector shares led advances in late trade: Intel Corp +10.90%, Sandisk Corp +10.17%, Teledyne Technologies +9.87%, Western Digital +9.75%, Advanced Micro Devices +7.89%, Micron Technology +7.53%, Interactive Brokers Group +7.16%, Citizens Financial Group +7.07%, Fifth Third Bancorp +5.37%, Invesco +5.09%, Regions Financial +4.63%, M&T Bank +3.97% and KeyCorp +3.49%.
  • Another standout was Moderna, surging +12.85% on upgrades and positive headlines on it’s cancer vaccine.
  • Conversely, Consumer Staples and Utilities underperformed in the first half: Kraft Heinz -6.21%, Target Corp-2.73%, McCormick & Co -2.23% and Hershey Co -1.84% while Sempra -1.72%, Consolidated Edison -1.15%, PG&E Corp -0.98% and Duke Energy -0.28% weighed on the Utilities sector.
  • Reminder, a handful of stocks expected to announce earnings after the close include: Prologis Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation, Pinnacle Financial and Kinder Morgan.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

Jan-21 20:00
  • RES 4: 187.36 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low 
  • RES 3: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
  • RES 2: 185.77 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
  • RES 1: 185.57 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 185.15 @ 17:37 GMT Jan 21
  • SUP 1: 182.63 Low Jan 19
  • SUP 2: 182.08 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 181.57 Low Dec 17 
  • SUP 4: 180.50 Low Dec 8 

The strong recovery in EURJPY from Monday’s low highlights the end of the recent 3-day correction. The primary bull trend remains intact and the cross continues to trade above support at 182.21, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is 185.57, the Jan 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend - sights are on 187.36, a bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low.     

COMMODITIES: Gold Pares Gains As Trump Says Has Framework For Greenland Deal

Jan-21 19:51
  • Gold rose to another record high ahead of President Trump’s address at the WEF in Davos today, before paring gains as his comments on not using force to acquire Greenland helped to stabilise sentiment somewhat.
  • Subsequently, Trump has posted on social media to say that he has a framework for a future deal on Greenland with NATO, and won't impose Greenland-linked tariffs on Feb 1, prompting a further risk-on move.
  • Spot gold has now gapped lower and is currently up by just 0.2% on the day at $4,774/oz at typing, well below the earlier high at $4,888.42.
  • The trend structure in gold remains bullish and another fresh cycle high today reinforces current conditions. Sights are on the $4,900.0 handle next, and further out the psychological $5,000.0 level.
  • Initial firm support to watch lies at $4,542.8, the 20-day EMA.
  • Meanwhile, crude has reversed earlier losses and is slightly higher on the day as the market weighs disruption to CPC supplies.
  • WTI Mar 26 is up by 0.4% at $60.6/bbl.
  • A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact for now and a short-term cycle high last week reinforces a bull theme.
  • Price has recently traded through a key short-term resistance at $60.91, the Oct 24 high, strengthening the bull phase and highlighting a stronger reversal of the recent downtrend. Sights are on $62.41 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Initial firm support lies at $58.68, the 50-day EMA.