IRAN: Latest Bessent Comments on Iran

Today sees updates from five separate speakers today where a rural investment theme for most of them could limit market moving discussion on mon pol. We’ll nevertheless watch for any pertinent comments from permanent voter Barr or 2026 voter Paulson (the least hawkish of the four regional Fed heads voting this year). Today will also be the first post-FOMC comments from Collins although she isn’t set to vote until 2028. 

• 0945ET – Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’27 voter) on AP Livestream. Talking in length on Apr 7, he mentioned the eery current similarities with the 2021/22 inflationary episode. He deems the labor market to be stable but not great. Combined with being cautious/nervous about the economy, he is still trying to work out what is the appropriate action.
• 1015ET – Goolsbee on Yahoo Finance
• 1210ET – Goolsbee at Semafor event (no text)
• 1245ET – Gov. Barr (voter) on rural economic development (text only). Discussing the Iran conflict on Apr 1, “The Middle East might only not only hurt inflation, but also hurt growth if it lasts for a long time. If it’s over quickly and resolved quickly, effect will also dissipate quickly. But if the conflict persists then it could have these longer term effects on growth”.
• 1300ET – Barr moderates fireside chat with Richmond Fed’s Barkin (’27), Boston Fed’s Collins (non-voter) and Philly Fed’s Paulson (’26) on rural investment.
• Paulson on Mar 27 said “There’s a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is faster and maybe a little bit more durable. I’m worried about that.” Going against that, she still views the labor market as bending not breaking although cautioned that it seems fragile and vulnerable to shocks. 

• RES 4: 112-16   61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-07   High Mar 18
• RES 2: 111-31   50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 1: 111-19/21   50-day EMA / High Apr 08
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-11 @ 11:07 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 111-22+ Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 110-16/109-24   Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 109-22+ 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 109-12   2.000 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

The latest recovery in Treasuries appears corrective. Trend signals remain bearish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. Support to watch is 110-16, the Apr 2 low. A break would be bearish. For bulls, the next important resistance at 111-19, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery that would open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.

TYM6 110.50 puts ~4.3K given at 0-25.