USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
- RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
- RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
- RES 1: 135.47/64 High May 10 / 50.0% of the May 2 - 4 bear leg
- PRICE: 134.25 @ 06:47 BST May 11
- SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 4
- SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
- SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13
USDJPY short-term conditions are bearish and yesterday’s resumption of weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would open 133.50, the May 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and open 133.02, the Apr 26 low. Note too that a break of 133.50 would confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. Initial resistance is at 135.47, Wednesday’s high.
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EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
- RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
- RES 1: 145.80 High Apr 5 / 76.4% of Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
- PRICE: 145.11 @ 06:47 BST Apr 11
- SUP 1: 143.48/142.55 20-day EMA / Low Apr 6
- SUP 2: 141.79 Low Mar 29 and a key support
- SUP 3: 141.05 Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: 140.41 Low Mar 27
EURJPY remains below its recent highs. The cross has recently pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, the next firm support is seen at 142.55, the Apr 6 low.
BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
- RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 116.30 @ Close Apr 6
- SUP 1: 115.12/114.04 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
- SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
- SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
BTP futures traded higher last week but price remains below 117.17, the Mar 24 high and key resistance. The short-term outlook appears bullish. Note however, that price has recently traded through support at 115.12, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. A breach of 117.17 would resume the uptrend.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 10, 2023
Spain, Belgium, Finland, France and Italy all look to sell bills this week. We pencil in E23.8bln of issuance at first round operations, up from E19.5bln this week.
- Spain will kick off bill issuance for the week this morning with a combined E4.5-5.5bln of 6-month Oct 6, 2023 letras on offer alongside new 12-month Apr 12, 2024 letras.
- Belgium will then look to sell a combined E1.8-2.2bln of 3/11-month TCs: an indicative E800mln of the 3-month Jul 13, 2022 TC and an indicative E1.2bln of the 11-month Mar 7, 2024 TC.
- Finland will look to sell up to E1bln of the 7-month Nov 13, 2023 RFTB and up to E1bln of the 10-month Feb 13, 2024 RFTB.
- France will conclude today's issuance. AFT has yet to confirm the details of the auction but we pencil in a reopening of the 12-week Jul 5, 2023 BTF, the launch of the new 23-week Sep 29, 2023 BTF and a reopening of the 49-week Mar 20, 2024 BTF.
- Italy will conclude the week's issuance tomorrow by reopening E2.0bln of the 4-month Aug 14, 2023 BOT and launching for E6.5bln the new 12-month Apr 12, 2024 BOT.
